Chick-Fil-a Peach Bowl Betting: Houston vs. Florida State Odds, Analysis, Pick

The Florida State Seminoles fell out of playoff contention with a pair of midseason losses, but they finished with three straight victories and a 5-0 run against the spread. The Seminoles hope to carry that over when they meet the AAC champion Houston Cougars in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Eve afternoon at noon at the Georgia Dome.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl point spread: The Seminoles opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.1-33.9 Seminoles

Why the Cougars can cover the spread

Houston started 10-0 this season, knocking off four bowl-bound teams along the way and going 6-4 ATS while battling some stiff spreads. The Cougars then suffered an upset at the UConn Huskies, but they bombed the Navy Midshipmen in their regular-season finale, 52-31, to clinch the AAC's West Division title. Houston then grabbed a 17-3 lead on the Temple Owls in the conference championship game and held on for a 24-13 victory.

The Cougars outrushed the Owls, 233-98, as quarterback Greg Ward topped the 1,000-yard mark for the season with 148 rushing yards. Houston has now outrushed 11 of 13 opponents this season.

The Cougars rank 13th in the country in rushing and 12th against the run. Outrushing your opponents by 120 yards per game is usually a good way to cover spreads.

Houston pulled off a great bowl upset last year, rallying from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Pittsburgh Panthers, 35-34, in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Why the Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU started 6-0 this season but fate took a hand and the Seminoles lost at the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on a crazy final play, another one of those blocked field-goal attempts returned for a touchdown with no time on the clock. The 'Noles then beat the Syracuse Orange with their backup quarterback, but in the game that meant everything, they lost at the Clemson Tigers, 23-13. Florida State then finished with three straight victories, including a 27-2 flogging of the rival Florida Gators in the season finale.

The Seminoles outgained and outrushed the Gators, the sixth time in the last eight games they've done so.

Florida State lost to the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl last year, but is still 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS in five bowls under head coach Jimbo Fisher.

Smart pick

Some bowls simply come down to the team that wants to be there the most, and in this case it's Houston. Take the Cougars, and they might not even need the points.

Betting trends

Houston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games against the ACC.

Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 bowl games.

Florida State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.

The underdog has covered in seven of the last 10 Peach Bowls

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.