Sugar Bowl Betting: Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi Odds, Analysis and Pick

Oklahoma State stumbled down the stretch this season, losing its last two games straight up, its last three games against the spread, and falling out of contention in the Big 12. Ole Miss, meanwhile, rebounded from a disheartening loss to win and cover its last two games. Two teams coming off near-misses in their conference races meet when the Cowboys face the Rebels in the Sugar Bowl.

Sugar Bowl point spread: Rebels opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.2-32.4 Rebels

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Oklahoma State started this season 10-0, with wins over five bowl-bound teams along the way. The Cowboys then lost at home to Baylor but still had a chance to win the Big 12 and perhaps make the College Football Playoff with a win against Oklahoma in the season finale. Unfortunately, OSU lost the Bedlam game to the Sooners, 58-23, to finish at 10-2 on the regular season SU, 6-6 ATS.

The Cowboys came up empty against OU as eight-point dogs, but on the season, they're 2-1 ATS when getting six points or more. Oklahoma State is also 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in bowls under head coach Mike Gundy.

Why the Rebels can cover the spread

Ole Miss started 4-0 this season, including that upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Rebs then lost at Florida and later dropped a game at Memphis. Then, still with a chance to win the SEC West, Mississippi fell victim to a crazy play in overtime against Arkansas and lost, 53-52. Ole Miss then knocked off LSU and Mississippi State but finished second in the division at 6-2, 9-3 overall and 7-5 ATS.

The Rebs covered as short favorites against both the Tigers and the Bulldogs, bumping their ATS record this season to 3-1 when favored by seven points or fewer. Mississippi is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three bowls under head coach Hugh Freeze. Last year, though, the Rebs got blown out by TCU in the Peach Bowl, 42-3. So maybe they seek redemption this bowl season.

Smart pick

Ole Miss ended the regular season on a good note, whereas Oklahoma State didn't. Also, the Rebs hold the edges on offense, in the running game and on defense. The smart money here likes Mississippi.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in Oklahoma State's last six games.

Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last five bowl games.

Mississippi is 6-1 SU in its last seven bowl games.

The underdog has won SU and ATS in the last three Sugar Bowls

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.