Why Has Analytics Darling Alexander Semin Flunked out of the NHL?

After 650 games in the best hockey league in the world, it appears that Alexander Semin is done. On Wednesday, the Montreal Canadiens placed him on unconditional waivers with the obvious purpose of terminating his contract.

ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reported that Semin’s representatives have already reached out to teams out to teams in other leagues:

In all likelihood, this marks the end of the 31-year-old’s major league career. At his best, he was a nearly irresistible offensive force. In his early 20s, he scored 30-plus goals and recorded 70-plus points three times over the span of four seasons with the Washington Capitals. Even after that peak, he was still a productive offensive player; as recently as 2013-14, he put up 22 goals and 42 points in just over 60 games.

That doesn’t sound like much, but less than 100 players scored 20 goals that year. With offence dwindling around the NHL, even a consistent 20-goal man is a valuable commodity. By the summer of 2014, Semin had managed to score 20-plus goals in seven of the previous eight seasons, with only the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign an exception.

Additionally, Semin has generally been a darling of hockey’s still-young advanced-stats community. His scoring rates, with the exception of last season, have always been strong. In nine of his 10 NHL campaigns, his teams have done a better job of both outshooting and out-chancing the opposition with him on the ice than with him on the bench.

Even his most recent campaign, an abbreviated tour with the Montreal Canadiens, fares OK from a stats perspective. Montreal’s scoring chance rates improved when Semin stepped onto the ice, albeit by a small amount. He was scoring 1.5 points/hour at the time of his departure, which isn’t great but is respectable. Players such as Patrice Bergeron, Wayne Simmonds and Brandon Saad are all in that territory as of this writing; nobody is placing that trio on waivers.

These are all undeniable facts and go a long way toward explaining why so many stats types still see this player as potentially valuable. It’s extremely hard to find capable offensive players and players with a long track record of improving their respective teams’ results when they're on the ice.

The most common counterarguments move from the tangible to the intangible. Experts agree that character is a problem with this player.

Paul Bereswill/Getty Images

Ex-teammate Matt Bradley opened the floodgates in 2012 when he told Ottawa’s TSN 1200 that Semin “could easily be the best player in the league” but that he “just doesn’t care.” Ex-NHL coaches Marc Crawford and Pierre McGuire savaged him a short time later; according to NESN’s Douglas Flynn Crawford called him “a complete loser” while McGuire described him as “the ultimate coach killer.”

Don Waddell, the president of the Carolina Hurricanes was less vicious in his assessment of the player following his buyout but left little room for misunderstanding in conversation with Chip Alexander of the News & Observer:

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[Semin] didn’t buy into the culture that our coach [Bill Peters] was trying to get in the locker room. When you go to practice and you have 22 guys doing things the way the coach wants and one who doesn’t, it usually doesn’t end well. ... In simple terms, we paid him $14 million to go away.

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This isn’t really a debate about whether the player can contribute, though it’s often presented that way. Semin’s a good scorer. His teams consistently do better in terms of shots, scoring chances and goals when he’s on the ice. All the complaints about body language and shot-blocking and a lack of a physical game won’t change those facts.

The debate centers on whether Semin contributes enough to be worth the trouble he seems to bring when he isn’t on the ice. When he was scoring 30 goals per year, the answer was yes. Now he’s a diminished offensive player, the league’s 30 member clubs have decided that the answer is no.

It’s hard to blame them for that.

As much as Semin can still contribute, it seems he’s ceased to be a difference-maker. He hasn’t had a truly strong offensive season since 2012-13. Outside of 2013-14, he hasn’t had a brilliant campaign in terms of shot metrics since leaving Washington in 2012. His performance has dropped off as he’s entered what every statistical model shows is the downswing of the average forward’s career, meaning he isn’t likely to suddenly turn this around.

Mel Evans/Associated Press

It isn’t like average-scoring wingers with good shot metrics are all that hard to find. The New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs alone added a half-dozen over the summer without spending much money at all. The Lee Stempniaks and Jiri Tlustys and P.A. Parenteau’s of this world are not particularly rare players.

Beyond that, it would be folly to ignore the long line of people who see Semin as a disruptive influence. As Semin has become increasingly replaceable, the argument for keeping him has become more difficult to make. It’s one thing to bend the rules for a 30-goal man—it’s much more difficult for an average scorer.

That’s why he’s done now. He’s a demonstrably useful player. He just isn’t useful enough to compensate for the headache.

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com, Hockey-Reference.com, and war-on-ice.com. Salary information via NHLnumbers.com.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.