Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts (6-6) will try to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) for the seventh straight time when they square off Sunday in an AFC South matchup. The Colts are 5-1 against the spread during their six-game series winning streak versus the Jaguars, who have lost 22 of their last 30 home games overall.

Point spread: Colts opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was yet to be announced early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.4-20.0 Jaguars

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis has won 16 straight divisional games, going 13-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Even with Matt Hasselbeck starting at quarterback, the Colts were able to defeat Jacksonville 16-13 in overtime back in Week 4. In fact, Hasselbeck suffered his first loss this season as Andrew Luck’s replacement last week in a 45-10 rout on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS in five games as the starter.

However, Indy’s defense has been the difference in winning the last six meetings with the Jaguars. The Colts have not allowed more than 17 points in any of the games during the winning streak versus Jacksonville, giving up an average of less than 10.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars are playing much better offensively since the last meeting with Indianapolis, averaging nearly 27 points per game. Their lowest point total after that loss to the Colts is 19, and they won that game at home against the Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville is also 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall since falling at home in Week 6 to the Houston Texans, who are tied for the division lead with Indy. The team’s three losses in its past five games were all decided by six points or less.

Smart pick

The Jaguars may not be headed to the playoffs this year, but beating the Colts at home would make their season, so they will be highly motivated to do just that. Hasselbeck is nursing some injuries and may struggle to stay on the field in this one even if he does manage to start, which means third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst may see some time. Regardless, this is Jacksonville’s game to win and cover, so take the home team here.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in this matchup.

The Jaguars are 8-22 SU in their last 30 games at home.

The Colts are 16-0 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.