New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Giants (5-7) will look to break a three-game losing streak and remain atop the NFC East when they visit the Miami Dolphins (5-7) in the Week 14 Monday night matchup. The Giants are in a three-way tie atop the division and have won five of the past six meetings with the Dolphins, who are also 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.0-23.5 Dolphins

Why the Giants can cover the spread

New York has lost three straight by a combined nine points, and any of those games could have gone the other way. In last week’s 23-20 overtime loss to the New York Jets, Giants kicker Josh Brown missed his first field goal of the year from 48 yards out. Brown had made his first 26 attempts, and had he made the field goal in OT, it would have extended the game.

Regardless, this team has lost only one game by more than six points and must feel fortunate to still have a shot at the playoffs despite a losing record. New York typically finishes the season strong, going 5-2 straight up and ATS in its last seven games during the month of December. That will need to continue if the Giants are to win the division.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami has the same record as New York but sits in the cellar of the AFC East, although a winning campaign is not yet out the question. The Dolphins have gone 0-5 against divisional opponents but 5-2 against the rest of the teams on their schedule so far.

The biggest problem for Miami has been the lack of a home-field advantage, although the Giants will be traveling to the state of Florida for the second time in five weeks and may not have the same positive experience this time around. New York’s current skid started following a 32-18 road victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that is the team’s lone win away from home in its last four with a 1-2-1 ATS mark.

Smart pick

This is much bigger game for the Giants, who may be done if they lose here. They have home games against the Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles remaining along with a road matchup with the Minnesota Vikings in between. It’s a must-win for New York, and the team will find a way to beat the Dolphins and cover the small spread.

Betting trends

• The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home.
• The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games in December.
• The Dolphins are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.