Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (4-8) hope to remain in the NFC East race when they visit the well-rested Green Bay Packers (8-4) on Sunday. The Cowboys are coming off a 19-16 upset victory against the Washington Redskins as two-point road underdogs Monday night, pulling within one game of first place in the division. Meanwhile, the Packers played on Thursday night for the second straight week and beat the Detroit Lions 27-23 in miraculous fashion after trailing 20-0 to cover as 2.5-point road favorites.

Point spread: Packers opened as five-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.6-20.0 Packers

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

No matter how bad Dallas looks offensively at times without Tony Romo, the team’s defense always seems to keep games close. That is also the main reason the Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East title, helping them win two straight on the road. Outside of being on the wrong side of a 33-14 rout against the unbeaten Carolina Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, their previous four losses were all decided by seven points or less.

Green Bay has also not been the same dominant team at Lambeau Field as in previous years, falling to the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions there by a combined six points. Those are usually games the Packers win with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but instead they have failed to cover the spread in three straight at home as well.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Last week’s dramatic victory against the Lions may have been just the thing to get Green Bay back on track for another potential Super Bowl run. The Packers now have the edge over the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North title with a home matchup yet to be played between them in the regular-season finale.

Rodgers’ Hail Mary pass to beat Detroit as time expired also gave him a lot of confidence in his teammates, because it resulted in a win and not another close loss. Additionally, Green Bay wide receiver Davante Adams scored his first touchdown of the season in that game after several drops, proving he remains a valuable option for Rodgers.

Smart pick

The favorite is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings, and it is hard to imagine Dallas will be able to keep up with the Packers if they pick up where they left off last week. Green Bay scored 27 second-half points and showed how dangerous this team is when everybody is on the same page. The Cowboys kept it close in their playoff matchup at Lambeau last year, but they will not be able to do that without Romo and running back DeMarco Murray here. Back the Pack to earn a double-digit home win.

Betting trends

The favored team is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games in this matchup.

The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs against the Packers.

The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as home favorites in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.