Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) will attempt to sweep the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) and clinch the AFC North title in a key divisional game Sunday. The Bengals are just 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 home games versus the Steelers, who routed them 42-21 as three-point road underdogs last year en route to a sweep of the season series.

Point spread: Bengals opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.9-18.5 Bengals

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center, Pittsburgh is never out of a game, which is why he should be in the discussion for NFL MVP. Roethlisberger may have come back too soon from a foot sprain, though, in the first meeting with Cincinnati, throwing three interceptions in a 16-10 home loss. He appears healthy now despite dealing with a concussion a couple of weeks ago and has been a Bengals killer.

The Steelers as a team have also performed well as road underdogs during the month of December, going 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last five games under that scenario. They have won eight straight December games overall both SU and ATS as well, proving that this is the time of year that they traditionally make a playoff push.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

After losing twice to Pittsburgh last year, including 27-17 in the regular-season finale to cost the team the division title, Cincinnati has a great opportunity to turn the tables and clinch the AFC North at home. The Bengals have still dropped eight of the last 11 games between the teams SU and ATS, but sometimes one victory can change things.

Like the Steelers, Cincinnati has enjoyed a lot of success previously during this month, going 10-3 SU and ATS in its last 13 December games. The Bengals also still have a shot at home-field advantage and the top seed in the AFC, sharing the same record with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, so they are playing for that too.

Smart pick

You can make an argument that this is one of Cincy’s biggest regular-season games ever because of what is on the line. Clinching the division with three weeks left enables the team to focus on getting healthy and earning the top seed if possible, something that was not the case a year ago. The Bengals played Pittsburgh tough defensively in the last game and will do so again here as they get another win and cover.

Betting trends

• The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against the Bengals.
• The Bengals are 10-3 SU and ATS in their last 13 games in December.
• The Steelers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as road underdogs in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.