NFL Week 14 Predictions: Projections for the Early Lines, Spreads and Odds

There is a lot of overreacting in the NFL, especially when a team is coming off a particularly good or bad game.

When a team pulls off a big win in unexpected circumstances, it causes handicappers and bettors to take an extra second to think. There's nothing wrong with a little extra thought, but a knee-jerk reaction is never a good thing.

Take the Philadelphia Eagles, who came off back-to-back humiliations at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions, and walked right into the league's toughest venue and beat the New England Patriots.

It doesn't matter that there were a number of flukish plays, including New England's odd onside kick in the second quarter, a punt block for a touchdown at the end of the second quarter and a punt return for a touchdown in the second half.

The oddsmakers have reacted. The Eagles are 2.5-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills in Week 14, according to Odds Shark.

From this corner, it seems like the Eagles' win over New England should not be given much weight from a handicapping perspective. In addition to the flukish plays described earlier, the Patriots are a team that has suffered numerous injuries at the skill positions.

Meanwhile, the Bills are rounding into shape. They outlasted a red-hot Houston Texans teams, and they have won three of their last five games. The two losses in that span came against the Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, who were two of the hottest teams in the league at the time.

Tyrod Taylor is a dangerous quarterback who has shown surprising accuracy to go with outstanding athleticism. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is a big-play maker who can run by or go over the top of the defense.

Then there's LeSean McCoy, who is going back to Philadelphia to show Eagles head coach Chip Kelly what a mistake he made in getting rid of him.

The Eagles have had some good moments, but they have not played with consistency, and that's what they will need to beat the Bills.

Even though the Eagles are at home and coming off a win, the wrong team is favored. The Bills get the win here as the underdog.

Game	Line	Selection
Minnesota at Arizona	Arizona -8	Minnesota
Atlanta at Carolina	Carolina -8.5	Atlanta
Washington at Chicago	No line	Chicago
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	No line	Pittsburgh
San Francisco at Cleveland	Even	Cleveland
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	No line	Indianapolis
San Diego at Kansas City	Kansas City -11.5	San Diego
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets	N.Y. Jets -8	N.Y. Jets
Buffalo at Philadelphia	Philadelphia -2.5	Buffalo
Detroit at St. Louis	Even	Detroit
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay -4	Tampa Bay
Seattle at Baltimore	No line	Seattle
Oakland at Denver	Denver -8	Oakland
Dallas at Green Bay	No line	Green Bay
New England at Houston	New England -3.5	New England
N.Y. Giants at Miami	No line	N.Y. Giants

Don't sell Vikings short

Just as Las Vegas likes to react after an unexpected win, the handicappers also do the same after a big loss.

The Minnesota Vikings have been playing solid football for more than three months, and they took the field in Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks with a chance to further enhance their reputation.

They were unable to do that. The Seahawks gained momentum in Week 12 with a win at home against Pittsburgh, and that continued on the road against the Vikings. The Seahawks jumped out to a 35-0 lead and cruised to a 38-7 victory.

So the way many handicappers think is that the up-and-coming Vikings failed against the battled-tested Seahawks. Yes, the Vikings did have a poor game, as the defense failed to contain Russell Wilson and the offense never got untracked.

But does that mean that all the good the Vikings had done in building an 8-3 record is undone? Not a chance. 

The Vikings will get a chance to prove themselves again Thursday night when they go on the road to Arizona.

The Cardinals are a strong team and eight-point favorites. That's simply too many points. The oddsmakers have lost their respect for the Vikings.

Don't be surprised if this game comes down to a late field goal. Minnesota may not win, but the Vikings will get the cover.

Jim Steve-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs faced with huge impost versus struggling Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone from the coldest team in the league to one of the hottest. After losing five games in a row, they have won six straight games and are in control of their own playoff destiny.

Head coach Andy Reid deserves credit, as does quarterback Alex Smith. The Chiefs appeared ready to fold it up and start playing for an elite draft pick, but Reid would not let his players fall apart.

While he was rallying his troops, quarterback Alex Smith was keeping his cool. Instead of taking chances and putting his team at risk, Smith started managing the game and moving the offense.

Managing the game is usually associated with a quarterback who is too timid to go downfield and make plays, but it represents ball security and know-how to the Chiefs. Smith has not thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Chiefs have become a good team, and they are playing an injured and depressed San Diego team that has won just three times this year.

The Chiefs are huge 11.5-point favorites. The Chargers still have Philip Rivers at quarterback, and the defense has not given up. 

That point spread is simply too much. While the Chiefs should win, it won't be by double digits. Look for the Chargers to get the cover.