Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tennessee Titans are 0-11 straight up and 3-8 against the spread over their last 11 games in front of their home crowd in Nashville. Perhaps they'd rather play Sunday's game against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.2-19.6 Titans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags had won three of four games but lost last week at home to the San Diego Chargers 31-25. Jacksonville led the Chargers late into the second quarter 9-7, but it gave up two touchdowns in less than a minute to go into the locker room down 21-9.

The Jags then rallied to trail 24-19 after a Blake Bortles touchdown pass to Julius Thomas with 11 minutes left to go, but they allowed the Chargers to ice the game with a long scoring drive of their own.

On the day, Jacksonville outgained San Diego 420-369, as Bortles threw for 329 yards and two scores but also one costly pick. Meanwhile, the Jags defense just couldn't get Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense off the field when it really mattered.

Jacksonville also outrushed San Diego by 23 yards and has now outgrounded four of its last five opponents. Not coincidentally, the Jags are 4-1 ATS over that span.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans are coming off their second tough loss in a row, a 24-21 decision at home to the Oakland Raiders last week. Tennessee trailed 17-6 midway through the third quarter and rallied to take a 21-17 lead, but an iffy defensive holding penalty on a fourth down kept a late Raiders drive alive, and Derek Carr then tossed a touchdown pass with just over a minute to go to give Oakland the lead.

The Titans then drove to midfield with time for a field goal, but quarterback Marcus Mariota tossed a pick, and for the third time this season, Tennessee lost a game at home in which it held a fourth-quarter lead.

Two weeks ago, the Titans fell at Jacksonville 19-13 after leading that game 13-9 late into the fourth quarter. And five of Tennessee's losses this season have come by six points or less, four by a field goal or less. A few plays here and there, and the Titans might be a lot closer to .500 than 2-9.

Smart pick

The Jags just beat the Titans a couple of weeks ago, but Tennessee outplayed Jacksonville that night, and the Titans are due a little better luck. Despite the streak, take Tennessee.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Titans.

The Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against their division.

The Jaguars are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 13.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.