Paige VanZant vs. Rose Namajunas: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 80 on Thursday, December 10 will feature a compelling strawweight matchup for its main event.
No. 3-ranked contender Rose Namajunas (3-2) will take on No. 7-ranked Paige VanZant (6-1) in the UFC Fight Pass main event. VanZant was originally booked against No. 9-ranked Joanne Calderwood, but an injury forced the UFC to look for a replacement. In stepped Namajunas.
If anyone held the belief that the UFC was going to do VanZant favors, they could wipe that notion away when the company tabbed Namajunas. It became a higher-ranked fight and a more difficult matchup.
VanZant has won four straight and is 3-0 in the UFC. Namajunas got back in the win column following her defeat to Carla Esparza in The Ultimate Fighter 20 strawweight title finale by defeating Angela Hill in October.
The UFC Fight Night 80 main event will propel the victor to title contention. It is a highly relevant fight that will kick off a series of magnificent fights in December. But who holds the edge?
Let's take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown for Namajunas vs. VanZant.
Striking
1 of 5
The FightMetric numbers would seem to favor VanZant, but numbers do, in fact, lie.
VanZant's numbers are larger due to a variety of factors. First, she has three fights that have gone into the third round. Thus, it has given her more time to land her strikes. Namajunas is 1-1 in the UFC, and her one victory came in the first round.
Second, each fighter's style is important to consider. VanZant is a pressure fighter who can light opponents up with quick punches against the cage and on the mat. Namajunas has the ability for high output, but she can be more measured with her striking.
What gives Namajunas the striking advantage is her length. VanZant will have a more difficult time of getting inside to utilize her striking. Namajunas also utilizes better kicks and knees, which will help her to keep optimal distance, should she employ that strategy.
VanZant scores with punches in bunches while pressuring, but that will be more difficult to execute against Namajunas, who has a better chance to touch up her opponent.
Edge: Namajunas
Grappling
2 of 5
Should VanZant get inside, the chances for the takedown will be there.
Carla Esparza took down Namajunas five times in a little over 11 minutes. While the former champion is a solid wrestler, she is not as athletic or explosive as VanZant is with her shots. That should be worrisome for Namajunas in this fight.
VanZant's style of pressuring her opponents also benefits her grappling. She can keep opponents pinned against the cage in clinch positions.
Namajunas is not a terrible grappler, but she is still learning the craft. VanZant simply has more experience in this area, and it will be a key to her performance at UFC Fight Night 80.
Edge: VanZant
Submissions
3 of 5
This may be the most intriguing matchup between the two fighters. They are both skilled with submissions but have very different styles.
Namajunas is more creative with her submissions. Her flying armbar submission at Invicta FC 5 was an insight into her style. VanZant takes her time seeking the submission, using her wrestling to get into the best position possible.
I prefer Namajunas' style, as she will be more apt to take chances, and that could be a big factor in this fight if VanZant is successful with her wrestling. Namajunas is long, and if she is active off her back, it will force VanZant to be defensive instead of offensive.
VanZant won't have too many opportunities to finish via submission until Namajunas is tired.
Edge: Namajunas
X-Factors
4 of 5
Namajunas' X-Factor: Facing Adversity
Namajunas performed well on The Ultimate Fighter, but the editing did show how emotional she can be. That is not necessarily always a bad thing in fighting, but it does raise some concerns.
In the finale against Esparza, Namajunas folded under the pressure. Here she is again against another wrestler in another main event. Will the relentlessness of VanZant break her? If so, how will that affect her confidence moving forward?
The early portions of this fight will be telling to see how Namajunas responds, because VanZant will bring the fight.
VanZant's X-Factor: Striking Defense
We have already established that Namajunas' length will be an issue for VanZant, and that means her striking defense has to be on point in the main event.
It is crucial because she has to prove her ability to evade incoming strikes. Doing so will allow her to get inside of Namajunas' range to land her own offense. If she cannot get inside, then her wrestling will also become a non-factor as it will be predictable.
Her striking defense is only 39 percent, according to FightMetric. That has to improve against Namajunas.
Prediction
5 of 5
The main event of UFC Fight Night 80 is a great matchup made even better because of how unpredictable it may be. VanZant and Namajunas bring new tools into the cage in every one of their fights, and it will be exciting to see what they unveil in a five-round war.
Given Esparza's success against Namajunas, I lean toward VanZant.
She is younger, quicker and more athletic than Esparza. That could be a big obstacle for Namajunas in defending the incoming takedowns.
It will take VanZant a round or two to start to take over the fight, but Namajunas' inability to keep VanZant off her will begin to wilt the former title challenger as the fight enters the championship rounds. The pace VanZant sets will sap Namajunas and give VanZant openings to end the fight.
Look for a late choke to seal the deal for VanZant.
Prediction: VanZant defeats Namajunas via submission in the fourth round.
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