Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Denver owns the recent rivalry with San Diego, winning seven of the last eight meetings outright, going 5-3 against the spread. Coming off a big home win last week, the Broncos hit the divisional road to take on the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as three-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.1-22.0 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver is now 2-0 with backup quarterback Brock Osweiler under center after knocking off previously unbeaten New England last week 30-24 in overtime. The Broncos trailed early 14-0 and 21-7 early in the fourth quarter, rallied to take a 24-21 lead with just over a minute to go, let the Patriots tie the game with a field goal at the regulation buzzer, then won it on C.J. Anderson's 48-yard scamper around left end and through the snow into the end zone.

For the night, Denver outgained New England 433-301, and outrushed the Pats 179-39, in taking that game outright as a three-point home dog.

Two weeks ago, in their first game without the injured Peyton Manning, the Broncos beat the Bears in Chicago 17-15. So after getting outgained and outrushed in its last two games with Manning, Denver has outrushed and outgained its two foes without him.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Just when things look bleakest, sometimes a little ray of sun shines down. That must be how the Bolts felt after snapping a six-game losing streak with a 31-25 victory at Jacksonville last week. San Diego trailed the Jags late into the second quarter 9-7, then scored twice in just over a minute, both times on Philip Rivers touchdown passes to Antonio Gates, to take a 21-9 lead into halftime.

The Chargers later let the Jags get within 24-19 early in the fourth quarter but put the game away with a 14-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, culminating in Rivers' fourth scoring toss of the day.

On the afternoon, San Diego got outgained 420-369 but won time of possession by three minutes and converted the game's only turnover into a touchdown, on its way to winning outright as a five-point coast-to-coast underdog.

The Chargers may have lost six games in a row, but two of those came by field goals and two others were decided by a couple of yards right at the end of the game.

Smart pick

San Diego enjoyed a bit of a reprieve last week, but that was against Jacksonville. The Chargers are still a team that's getting outrushed by 42 yards per game, still a team that's been outgained by an average of 115 yards its last three times out, still a team that always seems to be playing from behind. Meanwhile, Denver is coming off its two best rushing performances of the season. The smart money here backs the Broncos.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.

The Chargers are 0-4 straight up and ATS in their last four games after a win.

The Broncos are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.