Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Carolina is taking over as the dominant team in the NFC South with help from a recent run of success against rival New Orleans, winning five of the last seven meetings outright and going 4-3 against the spread. The Panthers shoot to stay unbeaten and in charge in the battle for the best record in the NFC when they pay a visit to the Saints Sunday at the Superdome.

Point spread: Panthers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.2-19.4 Panthers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina now stands as the lone undefeated team in the league after the dispatching of Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon 33-14. The Panthers, perhaps perturbed over beginning last week as an underdog on the betting line, grabbed a 7-0 lead one minute into the game with the help of a Kurt Coleman pick-six. They stretched that to 20-3 when Luke Kuechly pulled the same trick shortly before halftime.

Carolina later put the game away on a Cam Newton touchdown dash and dance, and it then knocked Tony Romo out for the season.

On the day, the Panthers outrushed the Cowboys 129-31, won time of possession by 10-plus minutes and held Dallas out of the end zone until allowing a garbage score with just over four minutes to go.

The Panthers have now outgained and outrushed each of their last seven opponents, and that's a pretty good case for domination. Not coincidentally, Carolina is 7-1 ATS over its last eight games, and it's up to plus-400 on the odds to finish 16-0 this season, per NFLOnlineBetting.com.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans had won four of five games to poke its nose into the playoff picture, but that overtime loss to Tennessee a few weeks ago began a three-game slide that continued last week with a 24-6 loss at Houston. The Saints only trailed the Texans by one score going into the third quarter, but two incursions inside the Texans red zone produced zero points.

On the season, New Orleans ranks near the bottom in most defensive categories but third in total offense. And up until two weeks ago, the Saints were averaging 27 points per game. Yes, this team is struggling, but Drew Brees and company are still capable of putting a scare in almost anybody on any given Sunday.

Smart pick

Carolina is rolling, while New Orleans is reeling, and playing on the road means the spread is a little more amenable toward the Panthers. The smart money here sides with Carolina.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road against the Saints.

The Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.