Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans (6-5) will take their four-game winning streak on the road when they visit the Buffalo Bills (5-6) in an important AFC game Sunday. The Texans have earned three of the four wins at home, including two straight, and they have also won the past three meetings with the Bills both straight up and against the spread.

Point spread: The Bills opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.4-22.0 Bills

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston has covered the spread in each victory during the winning streak, and the team’s most impressive one during that stretch came on the road against the previously unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Texans won 10-6 as 10-point underdogs and have continued to roll by beating the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints.

Buffalo is an odd team with a 1-4 mark SU and ATS in its last five games as a favorite, making that status virtually meaningless in this spot. The Bills have had opportunities to win each of their last two games on the road, too, but could not come through when needed. Their lack of clutch play will be tested again by a hot Houston team that is fighting them for a playoff spot and still has a solid shot to win the AFC South.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

After completing a rough three-game stretch of road games, Buffalo will finally be back home, where the team crushed the Miami Dolphins 33-17 as 3.5-point favorites the last time they were there. The team’s second-half schedule remains fairly difficult with two more road games immediately following this matchup with the Texans, making it critical to get a win here in one of the three home games left.

The Bills are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after suffering consecutive losses, avoiding a three-game skid on one previous occasion this year. Being at home can only help them, which was the case the last time they lost two in a row, routing the Dolphins. They also have not gone more than two games without covering the spread.

Smart pick

This is an intriguing game between two quality teams battling for the postseason, and both of them have very good defenses. While it is tough to pick a side between them, there appears to be a more appealing bet on the total. The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 home games and has also cashed in three of the four games during Houston’s winning streak. Look for a low-scoring affair that finishes below the total.

Betting trends

The Texans are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Bills.

The Bills are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after consecutive losses.

The Bills are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games as favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.