San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Odds, College Football Pick

San Diego State owns the recent rivalry with Air Force, winning the last five meetings straight up, covering the last six. The Aztecs hope to extend that dominance over the Falcons when the teams meet in the Mountain West Championship Game Saturday night on San Diego State's home field at Qualcomm Stadium.

Point spread: The Aztecs opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.2-32.4 Aztecs

Why the San Diego State Aztecs can cover the spread

SDS rides an eight-game winning streak into this conference title game after completing a perfect conference season with a 31-14 victory over Nevada last week. That game was tied at 14-14 late into the second quarter before the Aztecs scored the last 17 points to secure the victory and push the spread as 17-point favorites.

San Diego State outgained the Wolf Pack 408-263, piling up 320 yards on the ground.

The Aztecs have now outgained and outrushed each of their last eight opponents, most of them by large margins, going 7-0-1 ATS along the way.

Why the Air Force Falcons can cover the spread

Air Force lost its second MWC game of this season back in October to Colorado State, then won its next five games in a row, including recent back-to-back upsets of Utah State and Boise State. And with a little help from elsewhere, the Falcons won the Mountain Division. Last week, with a spot in the conference championship game already in pocket, Air Force lost at New Mexico 47-35.

The Falcons, perhaps a bit disinterested, fell down to the Lobos 34-14 midway through the third quarter, rallied to 40-35 with three minutes to go but couldn't quite complete the comeback.

Prior to last week, though, Air Force had outgained five foes in a row, each by at least 140 yards, covering five spreads in a row, and had outrushed seven opponents in a row, five of them by at least 180 yards.

Smart pick

Air Force owns an edge on offense, but San Diego State owns the edge on defense. Also, the Aztecs have held the Falcons to about half their average rushing output each of the last two meetings. The smart money here sides with San Diego State.

Betting trends

San Diego State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Air Force.

Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after losing as a favorite.

San Diego State is 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.