Bowling Green Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Odds, Football Pick

Northern Illinois is the monster of the MAC, the defending champ playing in the conference championship game for the sixth year in a row. But the Huskies have covered the spread just once over those previous five title tilts. For the third year in a row, NIU meets Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game on Friday night at Ford Field.

Point spread: Falcons opened as eight-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.0-32.4 Falcons

Why the Bowling Green Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons just completed a 9-3 regular season in which they also went 9-3 against the spread, beating Ball State last week, 48-10, and covering as 23-point favorites on the road. Following an upset loss to Toledo the week before, Bowling Green bounced out to a 27-0 lead at the half, eventually outgaining the Cardinals, 576-264.

The Falcons have now hit the 40-point mark eight times this season and outgained 10 of 12 opponents, five of them by more than 200 yards. They also beat two Big Ten teams this season (although you can take that for what it's worth), and took a pretty good Memphis team to the limit in a 44-41 defeat back in September.

Why the Northern Illinois Huskies can cover the spread

Northern Illinois dropped its MAC opener back in October at Central Michigan, then won six in a row to put itself in position for a sixth straight West Division title. The Huskies stumbled in an upset loss last week to Ohio but backed into the MAC Championship Game when Western Michigan upset Toledo last Friday.

NIU trailed the Bobcats 20-7 at the half and lost starting quarterback Ryan Graham, who was already subbing for an injured Drew Hare, to an injury. It rallied to within five points with just under two minutes to go but came up empty on an onside kick and couldn't get the ball back.

In relief of Graham, true freshman Tommy Fielder hit on nine of 17 throws for 113 yards and a touchdown and ran the ball three times for 20 yards.

Smart pick

These teams have split the last two MAC title games; two years ago, the Falcons upset the favored Huskies, 47-27, while last year Northern Illinois took revenge, 51-17. But the Huskies might be down to their third-string quarterback for this one, and have actually been outgained in three of their last four games.

Meanwhile, after getting blown out in this game last year, perhaps Bowling Green has a case of revenge in store for Friday. Also, BGU is 5-0 ATS this season as double-digit chalk. Take the Falcons.

Betting trends

Bowling Green is 1-4 SU in its last five games against Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in December.

Bowling Green is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.