Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Alabama is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last four meetings with Florida, including a victory/cover in the 2009 SEC title game. The Tide and Gators play for all the marbles again, and perhaps more, in this season's edition of the SEC Championship Game Saturday afternoon at the Georgia Dome.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.8-19.8 Crimson Tide

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida had won four games in a row and 10 of 11, but it lost last week to Florida State 27-2. The Gators held the Seminoles to 13 points through the first 54 minutes but gave up two late scores, the last one with 20 seconds left, to create a slightly misleading final score.

The Florida defense, as it's done all season, performed admirably, but it got no help from the offense, which came up completely empty on three incursions into the FSU red zone. On the season, the Gators are only averaging 353 yards per game, but their defense ranks fifth in the nation overall, holding foes to just 284 yards per game, and fifth in scoring, allowing just 16 points per game.

If Florida could just put up 17 points, its defense could do the rest.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Bama is playing for a berth in the College Football Playoff after concluding its regular season with a 29-13 victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl last week. The Tide only led the Tigers 19-13 into the fourth quarter. They scored the last 10 points of the game, the final seven on Derrick Henry's 25-yard bolt on a fourth down with 25 seconds to go, to secure the victory and the fortunate cover as 15-point favorites.

For the day, Alabama outgained Auburn 465-260, outrushed the Tigers 286-91 and won time of possession by almost 11 minutes. The Tide also settled for three short field goals; otherwise, it might have been a blowout.

Alabama is now outrushing opponents by 180 yards per game this season. Last year, Alabama beat Florida 42-21, covering 14 points and outgaining the Gators by almost 500 yards.

Smart pick

Florida's defense might keep it in the game for a while, but Alabama wears teams down. And playing on the neutral field means the spread is slightly more amenable. Give the points and take the Tide.

Betting trends

Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against Alabama.

Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four games.

Florida is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against its conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.