New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

It's a bit hard to believe, but the Houston Texans are 8-3 against the spread over their last 11 times out as betting favorites. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine times out as underdogs.

Two teams headed in different directions as of late meet when the Texans host the Saints on Sunday afternoon.

Point Spread: The Texans opened as three-point favorites. The total was 49 early in the week.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Texans 30.4, Saints 21.5

Why the Saints Can Cover the Spread

New Orleans had won three games in a row but has lost its last two, including a 47-14 decision at Washington last week. The Saints fell down 14-7, tied the game at 14-14 but faded from there.

Two weeks ago, New Orleans led Tennessee almost the entire game—sometimes by double-digit points—but eventually fell to Marcus Mariota and the Titans 34-28 in overtime.

Prior to that, though, the Saints beat three playoff contenders in a row in the Falcons, Colts and Giants. At 4-6, New Orleans retains some hope, sitting two games off the pace in the NFC wild-card race.

Why the Texans Can Cover the Spread

Despite uncertainty at the quarterback position, the Texans have won three games in a row after beating the Jets 24-17 last week. Houston, with freshly re-acquired TJ Yates at quarterback in place of the injured Brian Hoyer, employed the Wildcat at times for some good yardage, helping to take a 10-3 lead into halftime.

Then, on the key play of the game, Texans wide receiver Cecil Shorts tossed a 21-yard touchdown pass to Alfred Blue, snapping a 10-10 tie midway through the third quarter.

On the day, Houston gained 364 yards to New York's 267, rushed for 123 yards compared to the Jets' 70 and won time of possession by almost seven minutes. Advantages like that usually lead to wins and covers.

Houston has now held its last three opponents to a total of 29 points and covered three spreads in a row. Suddenly, at 5-5, the Texans are tied for first place in the AFC South.

Smart Pick

New Orleans ranks dead last in the league in total defense, and betting on the worst defense in the league is probably not a good idea. Fading it seems like the smarter choice. Take the Texans, regardless of who plays quarterback.

Betting Trends

• The Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.
• The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.
• The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after the bye.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.