Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) hope to break a three-game losing streak and earn their first home victory since Week 5 when they host the Minnesota Vikings (7-3) on Sunday.

The Falcons have lost their last two home games by a field goal, and they have failed to cover the spread in six straight games. The Vikings had covered eight in a row before losing at home to the Green Bay Packers, 30-13, last week as one-point favorites.

Point spread: Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.8-22.0, Falcons

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Before last Sunday’s lopsided loss to the Packers, Minnesota had no problem covering the spread, even in defeat. The Vikings were 7-1 straight up in their previous eight games, even beating the line as seven-point road underdogs in a 23-20 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 4. They also know how to succeed away from home, winning their last three road games SU and against the spread since that setback at Denver.

This Minnesota team knows how to rebound too and has not suffered consecutive losses all season. That is a lot different than Atlanta, which has lost confidence during its skid and turned out to be more of a pretender than a contender following a 5-0 start. The Falcons have not covered a home game since routing the Houston Texans, 48-21, as four-point favorites in Week 4, losing three in a row ATS at the Georgia Dome.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta’s last four games have all been decided by three points or less, so it is not like the team has been getting blown out lately or performing poorly overall. Only one of those turned out to be a victory, though, putting more pressure on quarterback Matt Ryan to make better decisions and come through late in games.

The good news for the Falcons is that the favorite has won six of the past eight meetings with the Vikings, who also may be in for a huge letdown here coming off an important divisional game. Minnesota played so good for so long after losing its season opener to the San Francisco 49ers, 20-3, on the road, and you can bet Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn will be studying tape of that game along with the loss to the Packers.

Smart pick

The Falcons are a desperate team right now and have some value as small home favorites, maybe because running back Devonta Freeman is questionable after suffering a concussion in last week’s 24-21 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts, according to the the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Michael Cunningham.

However, rookie Tevin Coleman is a capable backup who can fill in and help Ryan get back on track. While Minnesota has played better recently than Atlanta, the team’s loss to Green Bay will linger. Back the Falcons to rebound with a win and cover.

Betting trends

The favored team is 6-2 SU in its last eight games in this matchup.

The Falcons are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games as home favorites in November.

The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.