Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two struggling AFC East teams will try to get back on track when the Miami Dolphins (4-6) visit the New York Jets (5-5) on Sunday. The Dolphins are still searching for their first divisional win of the season, and the road team has won the past seven meetings between the teams to go along with a 6-1 mark against the spread.

Point spread: The Jets opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.4-16.8, Jets

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami is one of the most confusing teams in the NFL, winning on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles one week and then losing at home to the Dallas Cowboys the next. That is just the team’s last two games, which did not even involve an AFC East opponent. The Dolphins have gone 0-4 straight up and ATS in their four divisional games so far, but recent history in this series with the Jets says they will win it.

In the last seven matchups at New York, Miami has gone 5-2 ATS, and the team has also performed well as a road underdog during the month of November historically with a 10-4 ATS mark in its last 14 under that scenario. The latest win as a road dog came two weeks ago when the Dolphins upset the Eagles as 5.5-point dogs in Philly.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets are struggling right now, dropping four of their last five games and going 0-4-1 ATS during that stretch. However, this is still a team that started the season at 4-1 SU and ATS, including a 27-14 road win against the Dolphins as 2.5-point chalk in Week 4. They just need to play better defense, and the offense needs to generate more than 17 points, which is all they have totaled in losing each of their past two games.

In the first meeting with Miami, New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 218 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But running back Chris Ivory busted loose for a career-high 166 yards on 29 carries with one touchdown, and he can do the same thing again versus a Dolphins defense that just surrendered 129 yards on 29 carries to Darren McFadden of the Dallas Cowboys in a 24-14 home loss last week.

Smart pick

This is a tough game to handicap because the series' trends definitely point to Miami. However, the Dolphins have lost their last six games against AFC East foes, and New York has not lost consecutive home games this season.

The Jets have also not lost three in a row this year and will not drop their third straight here. New York head coach Todd Bowles will figure out a way to turn his team around with a win and cover at home.

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Jets.

The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.

The Jets are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.