Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds, Football Pick

Michigan State is only 2-4 against the spread at home this season, and lucky to be that. Meanwhile, Penn State is 0-4 ATS on the road this year. Coming off their big upset of Ohio State the Spartans look to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game when they entertain the Nittany Lions Saturday in East Lansing.

Point spread: This game was off the board early in the week at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.4-25.8 Nittany Lions

Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread

The Lions started this season 7-2—the only losses coming to two pretty good teams in Temple and Ohio State—but have lost their last two games, most recently a 28-16 decision last week to another good team, Michigan. Penn State led the Wolverines late into the second quarter 10-7, fell down 21-10, rallied to within 21-16 midway through the fourth but couldn't quite complete the comeback.

The Nittany Lions had their chances, with three incursions deep into Michigan territory, but had to settle for three very short field goals.

Penn State has struggled on offense this season, no doubt about it, but ranks 14th in the country in total defense and 18th in scoring defense, allowing less than 19 points per game. If they can ugly this game up, the Lions could make things very interesting for Sparty.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State, playing without its starting quarterback, pulled off a shocker last week, beating defending national champion Ohio State in Columbus 17-14 on a field goal at the buzzer. The Spartans actually dominated the line of scrimmage all day, but trailed 14-7 heading into the fourth quarter. They then tied the game on a short Gerald Holmes touchdown run with 12 minutes to go and later won it on Michael Geiger's 41-yard kick that hooked through the uprights as the clock ran out.

On the day Michigan State ran the ball 51 times for 203 yards and held the Buckeyes to a measly 132 total yards, winning time of possession by more than 16 minutes and taking that game outright as a two-touchdown underdog.

The victory puts the Spartans in the driver's seat in the Big Ten East; win this game, and it's off to the conference championship game for the third time in five seasons, and perhaps beyond.

Smart pick

Michigan State just knocked off King Buckeye on his home court, but it can be very difficult to get up emotionally two weeks in a row, even for good teams. Also, Penn State has several of the ingredients needed to pull off upsets on the road, such as a veteran quarterback and a good defense. And the Spartans might have to go with their backup quarterback again. Michigan State may very well win this game, but the smart money here lies with the Lions, plus the points.

Betting trends

Michigan State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after a win.

Penn State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

Penn State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.