Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (3-7) will attempt to stay unbeaten with quarterback Tony Romo, while the Carolina Panthers (10-0) hope to remain one of two undefeated teams in the NFL overall when they meet on Thanksgiving Day.

The Cowboys are 3-0 with Romo under center, going 0-7 in games he missed due to a broken collarbone. The Panthers have won the past five meetings straight up, though, with a 4-1 mark against the spread.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as one-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.0-21.6 Panthers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Despite the public fading Carolina the last few weeks, the team continues to rise to the occasion and cover the spread. The Panthers have covered their last three games, along with six of their past seven, en route to an 8-2 mark against the spread overall this season. They are coming off a season-high point total against the Washington Redskins a week after their opponent did the same against the New Orleans Saints.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton remains in the discussion for NFL MVP honors thanks to his much-improved play, including a career-high five touchdown passes versus Washington. Newton’s leadership has also been off the charts, as he has thrived even without having leading receiver Kelvin Benjamin all season due to a torn ACL.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas is fortunate to play in a division in which the leader is just .500, giving the team an opportunity to win it with a strong finish. With Romo, Dallas is a definite playoff contender. At the very worst, the Cowboys will play spoiler against other teams trying to make the postseason. In this particular situation, they are not out of the playoff race and face a must-win situation against a Panthers team that has had a few close calls lately.

Carolina has played once away from home in its last five games since beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks on the road before and after the bye week. The Panthers will be facing a fired-up Dallas team that knows what is on the line here, with extra motivation playing at home and looking to hand them their first setback.

Smart pick

There is no denying that the Cowboys are a much different team with Romo, as they would be legit Super Bowl contenders if he had played in every game so far. Unfortunately, he has not, but that does not mean they have given up on the season. If that was the case, he would probably sit out the rest of the year. Carolina has been outstanding but will not end up 16-0. This will be the team’s first loss, as Dallas will pull off the upset.

Betting trends

• The Panthers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys.
• The Cowboys are 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 12.
• The Panthers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games on the road in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.