Mississippi Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds, Football Pick

Mississippi State won three Egg Bowls in a row, going 3-0 against the spread, during coach Dan Mullen's first three seasons, but Ole Miss is 2-1 both straight up and ATS against the Bulldogs since coach Hugh Freeze took over. The Rebs hope to make it three out of four, and maybe even win a division title, when these in-state rivals meet for the 108th edition of the Egg Bowl Saturday night in Starkville.

Point spread: The Rebels opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.4-35.0 Rebels

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

Ole Miss bounced back from that disheartening defeat to Arkansas three weeks ago to beat LSU last week 38-17. The Rebs scored the first 24 points of the game, let the Tigers get within 24-17, then scored the last 14 points of the game to ice the victory and the cover as seven-point favorites.

On the day Ole Miss racked up 508 yards of offense and won time of possession by almost 13 minutes.

Thanks to their victory earlier this season over Alabama the Rebs still have a chance to win the SEC West; they need a victory this week and a minor miracle in the form of a Tide loss to Auburn, but you never know.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

MSU also bounced back from defeat last week, outlasting Arkansas 51-50 in Fayetteville. The Bulldogs spotted the Hogs the game's first touchdown, then scored 31 points in about 18 minutes to take a 17-point lead. They later fell down by 11, but rallied back, took the lead for good on a Dak Prescott touchdown pass—one of five for him on the day—with three minutes to go, then blocked a short Arkansas field-goal attempt in the last minute to save the outright victory as six-point road dogs.

Mississippi State outgained the Hogs 631-479, held them to just 73 yards rushing, and survived three turnovers. The Bulldogs have now outgained each of their last six opponents.

Last year MSU was ranked No. 4, with dreams of big things, heading into the Egg Bowl but lost in Oxford 31-17. Perhaps the Bulldogs have a nice, cold dish of revenge ready for the Rebs.

Smart pick

The Rebels will know their fate before this game kicks off Saturday night, because the Alabama-Auburn game should be over by kickoff. Regardless, this game should be close, and it's a tough one to pick. But the home team is 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS over the last 10 Egg Bowls, so the smart money here probably lies with the 'Dogs.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Mississippi State's last 11 games in November.

Mississippi is 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.

The total has gone under in seven of Mississippi's last eight games against its conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.