Oakland Raiders vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

After pulling off an upset as a double-digit underdog last week on the road against the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions will try to avoid the almost-inevitable letdown when they host the Oakland Raiders Sunday at Ford Field.

This game opened as a pick'em, and the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.0-23.8 Raiders

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

After beating the New York Jets on Nov. 1, the Raiders had won two games in a row and four of six. They have since hit some turbulence after losing their last two games, including a 30-14 decision at home against the Minnesota Vikings last week.

That game was closer than that final score might indicate, however, as the Raiders only trailed 20-14 well into the fourth quarter before giving up a field goal to fall behind by nine. Oakland then drove to the Minnesota 11-yard line, but quarterback Derek Carr threw an interception in the end zone. On the next play from scrimmage, Vikings running back Adrian Peterson bolted 80 yards for a game-clinching score.

For the day, Oakland lost the yardage battle, 385-371, but 80 of Minnesota's yards came on Peterson's late score. The Raiders also gave up a touchdown on a 93-yard kickoff return.

Two weeks ago, Oakland rallied to cover as a six-point dog at the Pittsburgh Steelers, and just before that the Raiders upset the Jets outright as three-point dogs. Going back to the prior game, the Raiders beat the San Diego Chargers outright, also as three-point dogs. Overall, the Raiders have been beating expectations as of late.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit took advantage of its bye week, got up for a divisional road game and upset the Packers last week, 18-16, winning in the state of Wisconsin for the first time since Wayne Fontes waddled the sidelines. The Lions outplayed the Packers for the first 58 minutes of the game to build an 18-10 lead and ultimately survived two missed extra points, a Green Bay two-point conversion, a blown onside kick recovery and a long Packers field-goal attempt at the end, winning outright as 11-point underdogs.

In fact, two double-digit NFL dogs pulled off upsets last week; the Houston Texans, at plus-11, beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night, 10-6.

Detroit got outgained by Green Bay, 372-287, but almost half the Packers' yardage came in the fourth quarter, after the Lions had taken a two-score lead.

Smart pick

This game sets up nicely for a reversal-of-fortunes play. Detroit is coming off a big divisional road upset, while Oakland just got punked at home. The Lions might be due for a letdown, while the Raiders might be ripe for a rebound. The smart betting option here is with Oakland.

Betting trends

The Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against the Lions.

The Lions are 3-0 ATS in their last three games at home in November.

The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.