New York Jets vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New York Jets (5-4) will look to defeat the Houston Texans (4-5) for the sixth time in seven meetings when they match up Sunday. The Jets have gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread in the last six games between the teams, and they will be looking to rebound from a 22-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday as 2.5-point home favorites.

Point spread: Jets opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.7-20.0 Jets

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York will be facing a Houston team playing on a short week off a huge upset victory as double-digit road underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans only scored 10 points in the win over the Bengals and will have a difficult time duplicating the defensive effort that prevented their opponent from scoring more than two field goals.

Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also knows Houston very well from his time there last year. Fitzpatrick had a procedure to repair a ligament in his thumb last Friday, which followed the team’s 22-17 home loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday. He is hoping to play and will start as long as he can practice. Even if he is unable to go, his insight will help his teammates prepare for the Texans, and they will have extra time to do so.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans are coming off their biggest win of the season, upsetting the previously unbeaten Bengals on the road. Even though they did not score much offensively, their defense was outstanding in holding one of the NFL’s top offenses without a touchdown. That confidence-builder gives the team some hope for a run at the division title.

Houston is currently tied with the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South. A home win over New York here coupled with an Indy loss on the road against the Atlanta Falcons would give the Texans sole possession of first, something that did not seem possible heading into the season. Despite losing running back Arian Foster for the year to a torn Achilles less than a month ago, they still have a real shot to win the division.

Smart pick

This is an equally big game for both teams, but Houston has the momentum and a better shot to make the postseason playing in the AFC South. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien also knows the strengths and weaknesses of his former quarterback Fitzpatrick and will be able to force him into some mistakes. And those mistakes will cost the Jets in what will be another close game, resulting in a third straight Houston victory.

Betting trends

The Jets are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Texans.

The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs in November.

The Jets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games after losing as favorite.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.