Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Oklahoma State owns 16 wins in its last 19 meetings with Baylor and a 5-2 straight-up and 6-1 against-the-spread tally in the rivalry between the current head coaches. But the Bears have won two of the last three meetings. In a big game in the Big 12, the undefeated Cowboys host one-loss Baylor Saturday night in Stillwater.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 53.4-37.9 Bears

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor will be fighting for whatever championship hopes it still harbors after losing last week to Oklahoma, 44-34. The Bears, playing with their backup quarterback, trailed by 14 points midway through the third quarter and pulled to within three points with 10 minutes to go, but they could get no closer in suffering their first defeat of this season.

Two weeks ago, in its first game with young Jarrett Stidham behind center, Baylor won at Kansas State 31-24, and that game wasn't quite as close as that final score might indicate.

Last week's loss dropped the Bears into fourth place in the Big 12, but key games remain to be played. With a win this week and help from elsewhere, Baylor could still win its third straight conference title.

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

OSU survived a huge scare last week, coming from behind to beat Iowa State in Ames 35-31. The Cowboys fell down by 17 points in the first half, and still trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter, but backup quarterback J.W. Walsh ran for one touchdown, then threw a touchdown pass with three minutes to go to save Oklahoma State's bacon.

On the night, OSU outgained the Cyclones 497-411, went 11-for-17 on third-down conversions and won time of possession by almost 11 minutes.

Two weeks ago, the Cowboys upset then-unbeaten TCU 49-29, and just before that, they rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Texas Tech 70-53. So Oklahoma State is a dangerous outfit, even when it's down.

Smart pick

What comes around seems to go around in the Big 12, as year after year the various contenders seem to knock each other off during their late-season round robins. And that process has already begun this season. Baylor may be playing with its backup quarterback, but it's good enough to overcome that situation. And Oklahoma State has had to rally from large deficits against lesser foes in two of its last three games. The smart money here backs the Bears.

Betting trends

Baylor is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games against Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games in November.

Baylor is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road in November.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds-tracker app.