Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Odds, Football Pick

Ohio State holds the upper hand in the rivalry with Michigan State, taking nine of the last 11 meetings outright, and it has won and covered two of three meetings since the current head coaches took over. In the biggest game of the year so far in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes battle the Spartans on Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe.

Point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.6-25.4 Buckeyes

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State bounced back from a brutal loss at Nebraska two weeks ago to beat Maryland last week 24-7, covering 14 points while playing three quarters without its starting quarterback. The Spartans took advantage of three first-half Terrapins turnovers to take a 17-7 lead into the locker room, topped the spread on a short Gerald Holmes touchdown run midway through the third quarter and clinched the cash by blanking the Terps from there.

On the day, Michigan State outrushed Maryland 141-107 and held the Terps to just 4-of-16 on third-down conversions. Spartans quarterback Connor Cook left last week's game with a sore throwing shoulder, but early indications are he'll play this week.

The only other time this season Michigan State played as an underdog, it beat Michigan at the Big House. And even though they needed a minor miracle to win that game, the Spartans were going to cover anyway as seven-point dogs. So going back a few seasons, Michigan State is now 6-1 ATS its last seven times out getting points.

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

Ohio State remained unbeaten and avoided the trap spot with a 28-3 victory at Illinois last week, covering 17 points. The Buckeyes slowly wore the Illini down, scoring one touchdown in each quarter and beating the spread when Illinois muffed a punt early in the fourth, setting up a 10-yard Ezekiel Elliott score. OSU outgained the Illini 440-261 and outrushed them 283-20, as Elliott went off for 181 yards, his 15th straight 100-yard rushing effort.

Earlier this season, Ohio State lost five in a row ATS, dealing with some big spreads, but the Buckeyes are now 3-1 ATS over their last four games, as the defense has allowed a total of just 34 points.

Smart pick

On its way to the national championship last season, Ohio State played its best ball against its toughest opponents. Perhaps that's what the Buckeyes have in mind for their home stretch this season. Also, Michigan State's quarterback is nursing a sore throwing shoulder, and that doesn't sound good. So while the spread on this game is probably inflated by at least a field goal, the smart money here resides with Ohio State.

Betting trends

• Michigan State is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against Ohio State.
• The total has gone under in eight of Ohio State's last nine games.
• Michigan State is 8-1 SU in its last nine games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.