Diagnosing Chicago Bulls' Biggest Flaws So Far

The Chicago Bulls are off to a 5-3 start. In getting there, they've earned notable wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder. They also recorded some failures, such as getting torched by the Charlotte Hornets.

Early in the season, it’s easy to overreact to positives or negatives, even as we tell ourselves, “It’s early.” The chore of analysis, at times, can be discerning between what is “real” and when a regression (or progression) to the mean is in order.

The False Defensive Narrative

This distinction is important, because a narrative exists which is not entirely accurate. It states that the Bulls have exchanged “defense for offense,” no longer caring for the former but only for the latter.

There are two factors to this logic. First, Tom Thibodeau, a defensive-minded coach, was replaced by Fred Hoiberg, a skipper selected for his offensive creativity and a system built for the evolving game that emphasizes “pace and space.”

Then, Nikola Mirotic took over Joakim Noah's spot in the starting lineup—another move viewed as trading stopping power for scoring power.

After the Bulls had given up 130 points against the Hornets, Jimmy Butler bemoaned the defensive collapse, via ESPN’s Nick Friedell:

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"We ain't been playing no defense," a frustrated Butler said after the game. "Other teams have just been missing shots to tell you the truth, to be honest. [Shoot] we score enough points, that's not the problem. But when you don't stop nobody, they put up 130 or whatever they did, we got to nip that in the bud now because that's not winning basketball. It will never be winning basketball here and it never has been winning basketball here. We've always prided ourself on playing hard and not being pretty. Tonight, we were pretty, we were soft. Got our asses whipped."

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The problem with this reasoning is that it doesn't hold up to the facts. The following chart of data provided by box scores at NBA.com shows how the Bulls fared defensively per 100 possessions against each of their opponents' normal offensive ratings:

As you can see, six of eight opponents were held below their season averages, and five significantly so. 

Furthermore, if you take the Charlotte game out of the equation, the Bulls have a defensive rating of 90.57, which would be the best in the NBA. On most nights, the Bulls give up 39 uncontested looks, according to NBA.com. That night, they gave up 41. So that’s not too far out of the ordinary.

The Bulls defense was no different that night than any other; the Hornets were just hitting their shots. It was an anomaly, not a flaw.

The narrative is false, but it's pervasive. That's not to say there aren't real flaws. Here are the three biggest issues, and what the Bulls must do to resolve them. 

Derrick Rose’s Needs His “I Suck” Moment

Derrick Rose, with a couple of exceptions, has been pretty awful this year. And frankly, the Bulls have been worse with him on the court on both sides of the ball:

They score, pass, rebound, shoot and defend better when Rose is on the bench. Did we miss anything?  

Rose, aka “One Eye,” has a good excuse, as he had his orbital bone broken on the first day of training camp when he had an unfortunate run-in with Taj Gibson’s elbow.  And, while he’s OK to play, he’s still experiencing blurred vision.

It’s hard to shoot when you have to aim for the basket in the middle.

And, while he’s hurling fewer threes, he’s also shooting a lot more mid-range shots, and doing it worse. According to Basketball-Reference.com, last year 26 percent of his shots came at the rim, and 15.4 percent were from between three and 10 feet. This year, he’s getting inside the restricted area just 19.3 percent of the time, while 30.7 percent of his shots see him settling for the three-to-10-foot variety.

His field-goal percentage from that range has dropped off the cliff, from 51.0 percent to an abhorrent 37.1 percent. 

And what adds to that problem is that in the new offense, the Bulls are putting less emphasis on offensive rebounding. Fewer of Rose’s misses are being recovered by his teammates. Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated observed:

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That rebounding trade-off is easily discernible when watching tape of Rose’s unsuccessful drives: there is often just one Bulls player, and sometimes none, in position for an offensive rebound. Rose’s wild shots regularly turn into easy defensive rebounds and, sometimes, they key transition opportunities for the opposition.

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And even more problematic than that was the odd sequence that followed the Bulls' Nov. 3 game against the Hornets:

Rose’s self-awareness took a hit this summer when he opined, unsolicited, on his future free agency. Now there's this. It’s one thing if you’re struggling; it’s quite another if you’re struggling and are completely unaware of it.

To his credit, after a rough first quarter in the following game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he posted his best stat line of the season: 29 points, seven assists and five rebounds. But in the two games since, he reverted to his previous levels of stink, shooting 33.3 percent and contributing 6.0 assists to 3.5 turnovers.

Kobe Bryant recently told the assembled media, “I suck,” acknowledging that his play has been nothing short of decrepit this season. Rose needs such a moment. You can’t fix the problem until you recognize there is one.

His vision needs to improve, both literally and metaphorically. 

Nikola Mirotic’s Consistency

Ask any reputable Bulls fan, and they’ll tell you the Bulls’ biggest problem the last two years has been consistency. That is mirrored amazingly in the performance of Nikola Mirotic. 

Based on his Plus-Minus Finder, since last year the Bulls are 40-13 when he is in the plus and 15-22 when he’s not. In the games they’ve won, he’s a plus-342. In losses, he’s minus-133.

And it's not hard to find the parallel with his performance. When the Bulls win, Mirotic shoots 35.3 percent from deep. When they lose, he's at 26.2 percent. And when his shot his struggling, the frustration gets to him on the other end of the court as well. 

It would be too much to put the totality of the responsibility for the Bulls inconsistency on him, but he shoulders more of the blame than anyone. When he’s brilliant, so are they. When he stinks, so do they.

And a part of the reason is his three-point shooting form, which is odd. Witness:

It’s almost like a shot-put. He "throws" it more than he "shoots" it, with the momentum all coming from his arms, not his legs.

When it’s working, things are fine, but it robs him of any chance at consistency. If the Bulls are to become consistent, they will need him to be reliable, and for that he’ll need to work on his form.

Making Doug McDermott Work

Mike Dunleavy Jr. has not played yet, as he missed all of training camp and the season so far after undergoing back surgery. In his place, the Bulls have been playing Tony Snell and Doug McDermott.

As a three-and-D wing, Snell has done an excellent job for the Bulls. Their defensive rating with him on the court is just 90.6, and he is shooting 48.1 percent from deep. However, after he started the first five games, Hoiberg switched things up and put McDermott in his place.

McDermott has been a surreally efficient scorer, boasting a 69.3 true shooting percentage on the year, scoring 89 points on 62 field-goal attempts and five from the stripe. He’s an otherworldly 57.6 percent from three while trying 4.1 per game. One cannot complain about that.

Yet in spite of such efficiency, the Bulls offensive rating is inexplicably at its worst when he is on the court, notching a meager 89.4 points. This has to be one of those early-season anomalies that will be worked out with time. His shooting will come down some, but the crazy offensive rating will go up.

But it still opens up the question of how they can best use McDermott's offensive prowess without sacrificing defense, as the 105.5 defensive rating when he plays is not an aberration. 

Last year, he looked completely lost most of the time while exhibiting all kinds of energy, which had the effect of exaggerating just how lost he was. He wasn't just lost; he was enthusiastically lost. 

This year, he seems to be grasping the concepts better, and the effort is still there, but he just doesn’t have the lateral quickness to defend the perimeter or the length to defend down low.

That makes him hard to hide. Once Dunleavy is healthy and back among the starters, that could resolve the Bulls problems. 

Hoiberg believes Dunleavy is edging closer toward returning, via Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times:

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“He’s getting closer to getting back out there on the floor,’’ Hoiberg said of Dunleavy. “He did a tempo run [Tuesday], all in a straight line as of right now. Hopefully in the next few days, he’ll be cleared to start cutting. Right now is about building his strength back up. He’s been in the weight room for I think five days. [Tuesday] was an off-day for him after getting his load back up pretty good, and now the next step is getting back full movement, which hopefully will happen within the next week.’’

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Once Dunleavy returns, Snell can slide into the backup shooting guard spot to McDermott’s 3. In that way, Snell can help with McDermott’s defensive deficiencies. 

There are other causes for concern. There's the health of Joakim Noah, for example, but those things aren't "flaws." And it's worth noting that the new offense isn't clicking yet. They're just 26th in the league at 97.8 points per 100 possessions, according to ESPN's Hollinger stats. 

But, particularly when learning a new system, it's a good idea not to panic too early. Remember, the Bulls defense didn't gel under Thibodeau until the Circus Trip. So, while that's something to watch for,  I'm not ready to call it a "flaw" yet (apart from the elements included above).

If they fix these flaws, they're still very capable of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. And fortunately, all of these things are fixable. 

All stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com/Stats and are current through Nov. 11, 2015.