Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Perhaps Campbell-mania was a bit premature; following consecutive losses under their new head coach, Miami is now 5-8 straight up and 3-10 against the spread over its last 13 games. Things don't get much easier this week as the 3-5 Dolphins play their third straight road contest Sunday afternoon at 4-4 Philadelphia.

Point spread: Eagles opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.9-18.1 Eagles

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami won its first two games under its interim head coach playing with some verve, putting up 82 points total against Tennessee and Houston. However, the Dolphins then hit the road for a pair of division-rival games against tougher foes and lost both, most recently a 33-17 decision at Buffalo last week.

Miami fell down to the Bills early by two scores, thanks in part to a shotgun-snapped safety, and battled back to within 19-14 early in the third quarter. But they ran out of gas as Buffalo scored twice from there to put the game away.

The Dolphins also hurt themselves when they came away empty from inside the Bills five-yard line just before halftime.

Two weeks ago Miami lost badly at New England, but if they could just recover some of what they had going against the Titans and Texans, which is to say run the ball and play some defense, they could keep this one close.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly is 3-1 both SU and ATS over its last four games, after beating the Cowboys in Arlington last week in overtime 33-27.

The Eagles spotted Dallas the first touchdown of the game and later allowed the Cowboys to force overtime with a field goal with two seconds left. They then won it on a 41-yard Sam Bradford-to-Jordan Matthews touchdown connection on the opening drive of the extra period, picking up a somewhat lucky cover as three-point favorites.

On the night Philly outgained and outrushed the Cowboys, the third time it's done that in its last four games.

Smart pick

So far this NFL season teams that have won the ground battles have won 68 percent of games outright and covered the spread 69 percent of the time. The team most likely to win the ground battle in this contest, thanks to a porous Miami run defense that just gave up 266 yards on the ground to Buffalo, is Philadelphia.

Betting trends

The Eagles are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games after a win.

The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.

The Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.