Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos (7-1) will try to rebound from their first loss of the season Sunday when they host the Kansas City Chiefs (3-5), who have lost the past seven meetings and gone 2-5 against the spread in those games. The Broncos fell to the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 last week, losing for the third time in four meetings and leaving quarterback Peyton Manning three yards short of breaking Brett Favre’s NFL record for passing yardage.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.6-12.2 Broncos

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs have won two straight games since losing five in a row, and they have covered the spread both times. Their skid had started with a tough 31-24 home loss to Denver in Week 2, as they led 24-17 with 2:27 remaining but saw the Broncos score two touchdowns in the final 36 seconds. Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles had a fumble returned for the game-winning touchdown, and he will not be available to get revenge due to a season-ending knee injury.

Fortunately, Kansas City has figured out a way to win without Charles, beating its last two opponents by a combined score of 68-23. The defense has stepped up, and second-year running back Charcandrick West has filled in nicely for Charles over the past two games, averaging 103.5 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Manning was not happy with the ending to Denver’s loss at Indy, as there was nothing he could do after cornerback Aqib Talib picked up a personal foul for poking Colts tight end Dwayne Allen in the eye. The clock ended up running out on the Broncos, but the good news is that Manning can now break Favre’s record at home.

Manning remains unbeaten against the Chiefs since he arrived in Denver, and he will be very motivated to bounce back from last week’s setback. In fact, the Broncos have won 12 straight games following a loss—going 10-2 ATS—and they have also won nine of their past 10 at home against divisional opponents.

Smart pick

Kansas City has really struggled in this matchup, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue here at Denver. While the Chiefs played better before their bye, they beat a Pittsburgh Steelers team starting its third-string quarterback and the dismal Detroit Lions in London. This will be Manning’s game to shine, and he will set the new passing mark while leading his team to another victory and cover against Kansas City.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after losing as the favorite.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 10.

The Chiefs are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Broncos in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.