Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers own the recent rivalry with the Detroit Lions, winning 16 of the last 19 meetings straight up and going 6-2 against the spread over the last eight. Coming off consecutive losses, the Packers welcome the hapless Lions to Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Packers opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.2-17.7 Packers

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions are 1-7 on the season both SU and ATS, but they have really only been blown out twice. One of those came last time out, a 45-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in London two weeks ago, but they then had last week off to work on a remedy.

Already this season, Detroit has lost close games to the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, all playoff contenders. The Lions only trailed the Broncos by two points into the fourth quarter, fell to the Seahawks by a field goal and trailed the Vikings by one score into the fourth quarter.

If Detroit can limit mistakes and get its running game going against a Packers defense giving up 125 yards per game on the ground, it could keep this rivalry battle close, too.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay opened this season with six straight victories, and while it's lost two games in a row, both of those came against undefeated teams—Denver and the Carolina Panthers—on their home fields.

Two weeks ago, the Packers only trailed the Broncos by a touchdown well into the third quarter before fading. Last week, Green Bay rallied from a 23-point deficit to pull within one score, and it had the ball at the Panthers' 2-yard line late before running out of downs.

The Packers won the second half last week 22-10, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers, following a dismal performance against Denver, nearly brought his team all the way back, finishing with 369 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Green Bay is struggling at the moment, but the timing is perfect for a home game with the Lions, a team the Pack has beaten 24 times in a row in the state of Wisconsin.

Smart pick

Green Bay is vulnerable, but Detroit doesn't have the tools to take advantage of the Packers' weaknesses. The Lions can't run the ball or stop the run, and they've only beaten Rodgers twice in 14 tries. So despite their recent struggles, take the Packers here, minus the points.

Betting trends

The Packers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games after losing as favorites.

The Lions are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 10.

The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.