North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles Odds, Football Pick

Florida State is 6-2 in its last eight games against North Carolina State, but the Wolfpack are 3-0 against the spread over the last three meetings and a lopsided 9-1 ATS over the last 10. Coming off their second loss of this season, the Seminoles, now in salvage mode, host a pesky rival in North Carolina State Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 10.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.6-30.2 Seminoles

Why the North Carolina State Wolfpack can cover the spread

The Pack just picked up an ACC road victory with a 24-8 decision at Boston College last week. State led 14-0 at the half and 24-0 late into the game before allowing the Eagles to avoid the shutout with a touchdown with just over a minute to go. On the day, North Carolina State outgained BC 351-285, and 65 of those Eagles yards came on a meaningless drive at the end of the game.

With the victory, the Wolfpack and their ninth-ranked defense are bowl-eligible; now what they need is a couple of quality victories from here on out—they host North Carolina in the season finale—to earn themselves a nice bowl bid, something better than the St. Petersburg Bowl.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Playing without starting quarterback Everett Golson, Florida State just suffered a 23-13 loss at Clemson that eliminated the Noles from any kind of title contention.

Florida State grabbed an early 7-0 lead with the help of a long Dalvin Cook scoring run and took a 13-13 tie into the fourth quarter, but it gave up the last 10 points of the game—the final seven coming on a Tigers touchdown and extra point with just over two minutes to go. However, the Seminoles did hang on for the cover as 12-point road dogs.

FSU started this season 6-0 before getting upset at Georgia Tech. The Noles then beat Syracuse 45-21, covering at 17 points. On the year, Florida State is 4-2 ATS when favored by 17 points or less.

Smart pick

The Seminoles won this matchup last season 56-41, but North Carolina State led that game throughout and covered as a 16-point home dog. As of now, Florida State is not quite the team it was that day, while N.C. State is improved. And Golson, still recovering from that concussion, is still questionable to play. Take the Pack here, plus the points.

Betting trends

The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.

North Carolina State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road against Florida State.

Florida State is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.