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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 10, 2015

LSU running back Leonard Fournette (7) warms up before the start of an NCAA college football game against Alabama, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015, in Tuscaloosa , Ala. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
John Bazemore/Associated Press

LSU owns three wins in the last four rivalry meetings with Arkansas, but the Razorbacks are 3-0 against the spread over the last three meetings, 7-1 ATS over the last eight. Two teams coming off polar-opposite outcomes meet when the Tigers and Hogs battle for the Golden Boot down in Baton Rouge Saturday night.

Point spread: Tigers opened as nine-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.8-26.1 Tigers

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs own a three-game winning streak, after pulling out a crazy 53-52 overtime victory at Ole Miss last week. Arkansas, as a seven-point dog, went punch-for-punch with the Rebels all day, never trailing by more than seven points, forcing overtime on a Brandon Allen touchdown pass with less than a minute to go.

The Hogs then converted a 4th-and-25 on a wild lateral/run-for-your-life to stay alive, and they won the game on a second-chance two-point conversion.

Arkansas racked up 605 yards of offense on the day, as Allen went off for 442 yards passing and six touchdowns, without an interception. The Razorbacks also dominated time of possession by a lopsided 41-19 margin.

So since a three-game losing streak back in September, Arkansas is 4-1 both SU and ATS.

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Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU started this season 7-0 but just suffered its first loss, a 30-16 decision at Alabama last week. The Tigers went down 10-0 in the second quarter, rallied to tie the score at 10-10, but just didn't have an answer for Tide running back Derrick Henry, who ran for 210 yards and three scores. LSU hoped to put a stranglehold on the SEC West; now the Tigers have to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and forge on.

Prior to that, LSU had covered three games in a row, at 16 points over Western Kentucky, six points over Florida and 20 points over South Carolina. And the Tigers aren't dead yet; with three wins to end the season, all three against quality foes, they could still earn enough cred to sneak into the College Football Playoff if other cards fall right.

Smart pick

This game sets up beautifully for bettors who believe in reversals of fortunes. Arkansas just pulled off a crazy, yet draining, victory last week, while LSU just suffered a disheartening defeat. But oftentimes in college football, and in life, what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa. Take the Tigers here, on the rebound.

Betting trends

Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after winning as an underdog.

Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against LSU.

LSU is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home in November.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

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