New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (8-0) will attempt to snap a three-game series losing streak against the New York Giants (5-4) and stay unbeaten when they meet Sunday. Two of those losses for the Patriots came in the Super Bowl, and they had won the previous four meetings with the Giants prior to the current skid. New York has covered the spread in the past four meetings along with six of the last seven.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 54 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.9-19.9 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

There has not been a more determined and motivated team in the NFL this season than New England. Starting with Deflategate, the Patriots have been on a mission to prove they are the league’s best team without any doubts going back to their Super Bowl victory against the Seattle Seahawks. Quarterback Tom Brady has led the charge with another MVP-caliber season, and now he gets to face his nemesis.

Brady has stepped up and beaten every opponent in his way this year, including NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. The Giants present him with a unique challenge because they have gotten the best of him three consecutive times and handed him his only two Super Bowl losses. But knowing Brady, he will find a way to rise to the occasion and top New York in dominant fashion to end that losing streak.

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants have been able to upset New England in the last three meetings because they have figured out a way to slow down the team’s offense and limit the amount of possessions for both sides. By doing that, it has put pressure on each of them to score touchdowns and increased the importance of the running game to move the chains and take time off the clock. New York quarterback Eli Manning has also made some of the biggest plays of his career against the Patriots and will be asked to do so again here.

The defense got Jason Pierre-Paul (hand) back last week in a 32-18 road victory versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and his presence gives the Giants the pass-rushing presence they desperately need against Brady. Even though Pierre-Paul is coming off his first game of the season, he instantly improved a unit that has struggled at times and will continue to make his biggest impact in the fourth quarter when it matters most.

Smart pick

It remains hard to go against Brady during his revenge tour, and this matchup figures to be another one for which he will be extremely excited. But New York head coach Tom Coughlin has done a masterful job of formulating a game plan to beat him, so expect his team to have an edge at home and stay within a touchdown to cover again.

Betting trends

• The Patriots are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games after consecutive ATS wins.
• The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Giants.
• The Giants are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.