Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Rex Ryan will face the New York Jets (5-3) for the first time as head coach of the Buffalo Bills (4-4) when they square off in the Week 10 Thursday night game. Ryan had helped lead the Jets to a 5-2 mark against the spread in their previous seven Thursday matchups before becoming the head coach of the Bills in the offseason.

Point spread: The Jets opened as three-point favorites and the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.9-19.3, Jets

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo got quarterback Tyrod Taylor back last week in a 33-17 home win over the Miami Dolphins and showed everybody how lethal the team’s offense can be when healthy. Taylor had missed two games with a knee injury, and the Bills lost both of those games straight up and ATS.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins also displayed his big-play ability with eight catches for 168 yards and a touchdown, despite dealing with a sprained ankle.

The offense generated 420 yards overall against the Dolphins, including 266 on the ground. When Buffalo can get that kind of production from running backs LeSean McCoy (112 yards and one touchdown) and rookie Karlos Williams (110 yards and two scores), it takes a lot of pressure off the defense, which had struggled in recent games because the unit was simply on the field too much.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

Like the Bills, the Jets had lost two in a row prior to a 28-23 home victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. New York’s secondary struggled a bit against Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who threw for 381 yards but also picked him off twice.

Buffalo is more of a running team, and the Jets held Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon to just 64 yards. They will have an excellent shot to not only win this game but also cover the spread if they can hold McCoy and Williams in check.

Offensively, New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing with a thumb injury and may opt for surgery. But Fitzpatrick still played well against Jacksonville with 272 yards and two touchdowns, one each to wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. As long as he continues to start for the team and limits his mistakes, the Jets can cover.

Smart pick

Ryan will be very motivated to win this game, as will first-year New York head coach Todd Bowles. Each of them has done a good job so far with their new teams, but the Jets have a slight edge defensively under Bowles, who is the former defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals.

New York’s players will make sure Ryan does not win at their expense in his return, so back the Jets to cover as small home favorites.

Betting trends

The Bills are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games after a win.

The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs against the Jets.

The Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.