Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Not too long ago, Oregon dominated the series with Stanford, winning nine of 10 meetings from 2002 to 2011. But the Cardinal have won two of the last three meetings outright and have covered four of the last seven. Stanford is usually the underdog against the Ducks but will go off as home chalk for Saturday night's Pac-12 North showdown out on the Farm.

Point spread: Cardinal opened as 8.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.5-31.6 Cardinal

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

Oregon struggled through the early part of this season, as many teams do after losing Heisman-winning quarterbacks, and a disheartening home loss to Washington State a month ago dropped the Ducks to just 3-3. But since then, Oregon is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, including a 44-28 victory over Cal last week. OU spotted the Bears the first 10 points of the game, then scored the next 31 to take over. Cal then pulled within two scores twice after that, but each time the Ducks responded with a score of their own.

For the game, Oregon racked up a new school-record 777 yards on offense, 477 on the ground, and won time of possession by almost 15 minutes on its way to covering as a four-point home favorite.

Two weeks ago the Ducks won at Arizona State 61-55 in overtime, and just before that they won at Washington 26-20, taking both those games outright as three-point road dogs. Along with that loss/cover at Michigan State back in September Oregon is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog.

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford own an eight-game winning streak, which includes seven covers, after crunching Colorado last week 42-10. The Cardinal scored on a one-yard Kevin Hogan run on the last play of the first half to take a 28-7 lead, then cruised from there, covering as two-touchdown road favorites.

On the day, Stanford outgained the Buffaloes 472-231, outrushed them 275-83 and won time of possession by 16 minutes.

Two weeks ago, the Cardinal had to hold on for dear life to beat Washington State up in Pullman 30-28, but prior to that they had won and covered six games in a row. At 7-0 in Pac-12 play Stanford needs one more victory to clinch a spot in the conference championship game, which could lead to even bigger things.

Smart pick

Stanford's ball-control has beaten Oregon's circus two of the last three meetings, but the Ducks actually outscored the Cardinal in those three games by a combined score of 79-59. Also, Oregon is a better team now than it was five weeks ago, and it might be getting a couple of extra points on the line, playing on the road. Dine with the Ducks, plus the points.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.

Oregon is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games against Stanford.

Stanford is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.