Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Odds, Football Pick

Ohio State owns the recent rivalry with Illinois, winning the last seven meetings straight up and going 5-2 against some large spreads. The Buckeyes will go against another big number when they dance with the Illini Saturday afternoon in Champaign, Illinois.

Point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 16-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.1-23.9 Buckeyes

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

OSU remained undefeated on the season with a 28-14 victory over Minnesota last week. The Buckeyes started slowly, took a 21-0 lead into the fourth quarter but couldn't quite finish the job as 23-point favorites, allowing the Gophers to score twice—the second time with just over two minutes to go to miss out on the cash.

On the night, Ohio State outrushed Minnesota 189-33, as Heisman candidate running back Ezekiel Elliott ground out 114 yards for his 14th consecutive 100-yard performance. Meanwhile, the defense held the Gophers off the board for the first 50 minutes of the game.

Two weeks ago, the Buckeyes beat Rutgers 49-7, covering 21 points, and just before that they beat Penn State 38-10, covering 17 points. So while Ohio State is only 3-6 ATS on the season, it's 3-1 ATS when favored by three touchdowns or less.

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini can cover the spread

Illinois is coming off perhaps its best performance of this season, a 48-14 romp over Purdue last week. The Illini grabbed a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game and led 20-0 before the Boilermakers hit the board late in the first half. Illinois then scored the first three touchdowns of the second half to ice the victory and the cover as a three-point road favorite.

The Illini outgained Purdue 595-263, outrushed the Boilers 382-89 and won time of possession by over seven minutes. Last week's effort came as a welcome rebound after a 39-0 drubbing at Penn State two weeks ago.

Earlier this season, Illinois upset Nebraska, then gave both Iowa and Wisconsin good games. So the Illini have played with some decent opponents.

Smart pick

Ohio State has won the last three meetings in this series by an average score of 56-24. Also, the Illini are ripe for a letdown after last week's big road victory. Back the Buckeyes here, the better team playing on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable.

Betting trends

Ohio State is 9-0 SU in its last nine games on the road against Illinois.

The total has gone under in six of Illinois's last eight games.

Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.