Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds, Football Pick

Alabama owns a seven-game winning streak in the series with Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are 3-1 against the spread over the last four meetings. Now back in control of their own destiny, the Crimson Tide will look to avoid the upset when they take on Dak Prescott and Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon in Starkville.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34-32.8, Bulldogs

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Alabama just grabbed the lead in the SEC West with a dominating 30-16 victory over LSU last week, covering as a seven-point home favorite. The Tide took an early 10-0 lead Saturday, allowed the Tigers to tie the score at 10, then scored the next 20 points of the game to take control.

On the night, Alabama outgained LSU by a lopsided 434-182 margin, beat the Tigers in first downs 28-12, held the ball for almost 40 minutes and won the big individual battle, as Derrick Henry ran for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Tide defense limited LSU's Leonard Fournette to just 31 yards on 19 carries, seriously denting his Heisman hopes.

Alabama now controls its own destiny, with three very winnable games left on the regular-season slate, then probably the SEC Championship Game. But it cannot afford a stumble in a spot like this.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs come in riding a four-game winning streak, with three covers in a row, after winning at Missouri last week 31-13, covering as seven-point road favorites. Mississippi State took a 7-0 lead on the opening drive of the game and never trailed, eventually pulling away by outscoring the Tigers 17-0 in the second half.

On the night, the Bulldogs won the first-down battle 23-16 and outgained Mizzou 430-322, as Prescott threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns without a pick.

At 3-2 in conference play, the Bulldogs would need a minor miracle to win the SEC West, but they would no doubt love to ruin Alabama's season with an upset on Saturday.

Smart pick

The Crimson Tide are coming off a big, emotional victory, and many teams in the same situation might suffer letdowns the next time out. But Alabama is probably too good for that. And playing on the road means the spread is a bit more amenable. The smart money in this spot rides the Tide.

Betting trends

Alabama is 7-0 SU in its last seven games against Mississippi State.

Mississippi State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home in November.

Alabama is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games on the road in November.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.