Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Oklahoma once dominated the rivalry with Baylor, winning 19 meetings in a row up through 2010. But things have changed since Art Briles took over the Bears, who have won three of the last four meetings with the Sooners, going 4-0 against the spread. In another big game in the Big 12, Baylor and Oklahoma battle it out Saturday night in Waco.

Point spread: The Bears opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.6-40.4 Bears

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

OU owns a four-game winning streak both straight up and ATS after trouncing Iowa State last week 52-16, covering 24 points.

The Sooners spotted the Cyclones an early field goal, then scored 21 unanswered points, the first six on a 75-yard Baker Mayfield touchdown pass on their first play from scrimmage, to take control. Oklahoma then secured the victory and the cash by scoring 31 unanswered in the second half. On the day, the Sooners outgained ISU 684-374.

Oklahoma also welcomed back two starting linebackers, Devante Bond and Jordan Evans, after both missed recent action with injuries. Since losing to Texas a month ago, the Sooners have won their last four games by an average score of 58-13.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor is 8-0 on the season, right in the running for a playoff berth, and passed its first test since losing its starting quarterback, winning at Kansas State last week 31-24. The Bears, with freshman Jarrett Stidham making his first start behind center, scored on their first drive of the game, and they had the spread covered as 17-point favorites when they stretched their lead to 31-10 early in the fourth quarter.

Baylor then allowed the Wildcats to score two touchdowns to whittle that lead down to seven and failed to get the cover. For the game, Stidham hit on 23 of 33 throws for 419 yards and three scores without an interception, and he ran for another touchdown.

The seven-point victory was the closest margin for the Bears this season; before that, Baylor's closest game was a 45-27 victory over Iowa State.

Smart pick

The Bears got a great performance from their freshman quarterback last week, but the Kansas State defense is one thing, the Oklahoma defense another. Also, the Baylor defense just got gouged by the Wildcats for 258 yards on the ground. The Bears embarrassed Oklahoma in Norman last season by a score of 48-14; perhaps the Sooners have revenge in mind for Saturday.

Betting trends

Oklahoma is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road against Baylor.

Baylor is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games at home.

Oklahoma is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.