Why Notre Dame Is the True Big Winner in College Football's Shake-Up Saturday
The biggest of many winners from college football's "shake-up Saturday" was Notre Dame, which not only beat Pittsburgh but also, by virtue of what happened around it, essentially guaranteed that running the table would land it in the College Football Playoff.
Conspiracy theorists will say that was true before Saturday—ain't no way they're snubbing Notre Dame and its guaranteed television ratings—but now the 11-1 Irish would deserve a playoff spot based on any objective survey of resumes.
The only realistic scenario in which they don't make the playoff is one with three undefeated conference champions and one-loss Alabama. That is theoretically possible, but it's unlikely enough that Notre Dame, after Week 10, can feel pretty good about its lot.
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Let's review some of the key things that happened to help the Irish.
1. Notre Dame Beats Pittsburgh, 42-30
This one is self-explanatory. DeShone Kizer threw for 262 yards and five touchdowns, 152 and three of which went to Will Fuller, and the Irish earned a quality road win over a team that was ranked in Week 9. They now play Boston College and Wake Forest, a pair that is 0-11 against the other 12 ACC teams, before heading to Stanford in the season finale.
2. Clemson Beats Florida State, 23-13
Notre Dame's quality loss remained a quality loss. No. 1 Clemson survived against its biggest rival, beating Florida State on the strength of quarterback Deshaun Watson, a dominant defense and timely screen passes to ice the game away. The Irish lost by two in Death Valley during a hurricane, so as long as the Tigers keep winning, it's hard to see any one-loss team (save Alabama) ranking ahead of them.
Speaking of which.…
3. Alabama Beats LSU, 30-16
The key here is that Alabama left no doubt in its win over LSU, outclassing the Tigers for 60 convincing minutes. A late score made things look more respectable, but the Crimson Tide outgained the Tigers 434-182, holding Leonard Fournette to 31 yards on 19 carries. Contrast that to Notre Dame's loss at Clemson, and you'll see how this plays well for the Irish. A close loss at Alabama would have rivaled ND's close loss at Clemson. This loss, however, does not.
4. Nebraska Beats Michigan State, 39-38
Speaking of potential one-loss teams that might have outranked Notre Dame: Michigan State dropped the ball. The Spartans melted down at Nebraska, losing on a controversial call and forfeited their margin for error next week when they head to Ohio State. Prior to Saturday's loss, MSU could have lost a close game in Columbus, finished 11-1 and had a one-loss resume commensurate with that of the Irish. Now that long-discussed point becomes moot.
5. Navy Beats Memphis, 45-20
It's not just the quality loss propping Notre Dame's resume above other one-loss teams; it's the unexpected quality wins. Chief among those wins is Navy, which upset No. 13 Memphis and remained undefeated against teams that aren't the Irish. The Midshipmen rushed for 374 yards in the win and are on track to reach an access bowl if they finish 11-1. Temple struggled on Friday night, but it and Navy might both be ranked come Tuesday.
That's a convincing list. And all from one day, too!
The Irish did lose running back C.J. Prosise to an upper body injury, but freshman Josh Adams emerged with 147 rushing yards, and head coach Brian Kelly said after the game that Prosise is "doing pretty good right now" and called him day-to-day, per ESPN.com's Matt Fortuna.
It sounds like he'll be back when Notre Dame needs him.
The only other thing that didn't go right for the Irish was that Stanford looked great (and avoided major injuries) in a 42-10 win at Colorado.
Unless the Irish choke against BC or Wake, they will travel to Palo Alto in what amounts, at least to them, as a national quarterfinal. Win and they make the semis. Lose and they go home.
If Stanford enters with one loss, that game will actually be a semifinal.
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