Washington Redskins vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two touchdowns are a ton when it comes to betting the NFL, and even the New England Patriots have troubles with numbers like that, going just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 times out in that spot. New England contends with a big number again when it entertains Washington Sunday afternoon in Foxborough.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 52 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.9-12.8 Patriots

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

Washington snapped a two-game losing streak two weeks ago with a rousing 31-30 come-from-behind victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then enjoyed last week off.

The Redskins looked like a lost cause early against the Bucs, falling down 24-0 midway through the second quarter on a Tampa fumble return for a score.

But from there, quarterback Kirk Cousins ran for one score, then threw three touchdown passes, the last with 24 seconds to go, to give the Redskins the unlikely win. On the day, Cousins hit on 33 of 40 throws for 317 yards with zero picks, saving his spot as the starter, at least for another week.

Washington may have its share of problems, but at 3-4, it's just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots strengthened their claim as the best team in football last Thursday, mauling the Miami Dolphins 36-7, easily covering as eight-point favorites. New England took a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game and never let the Dolphins back in, thoroughly dominating. On the night, the Patriots outgained Miami 437-270, held the Fish to just 15 yards rushing and won time of possession by over five minutes.

New England is now 4-3 ATS this season, which is great considering it's been favored by at least a touchdown six of seven times out. Also, the last time the Patriots were favored by two touchdowns, they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 51-17 six weeks ago.

Smart pick

New England should win this game easily; it leads the league in scoring at 36 points per game, while Washington has been outgained its last three games by an average of over 170 yards. But as mentioned above, two touchdowns is a whole lot in the NFL; the Patriots have won by that much “only” three times this season, while the Redskins have yet to lose by that much. Take the dog and the points.

Betting trends

The Redskins are 1-6 straight up and ATS in their last seven games after the bye.

The Redskins are 5-2 SU in their seven games against the Patriots since 1980.

The Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when favored by two touchdowns or more.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.