Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts will attempt to hand the Denver Broncos (7-0) their first loss and win for the eighth time in nine meetings when they square off Sunday. The Colts (3-5) upset the Broncos 24-13 on the road in the divisional playoffs last year as 9.5-point underdogs to cover the spread for the eighth straight time in the series.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.4-19.4 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver finally silenced critics by beating a worthy opponent last week in the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers, with the defense limiting reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to just 77 passing yards. The Broncos did not give Rodgers’ receivers any chances to stretch the field, and Green Bay’s offense is as lethal as any in the league.

Indy’s offense is not nearly as good, although the team was able to rally back from a 17-point deficit on the road against the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. The rally for the Colts ultimately fell short, though, in a 29-26 overtime loss, and that exhausting game combined with one less day to prepare will only benefit Denver.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis came so close to upsetting the unbeaten Carolina Panthers last week on the road in a 29-26 overtime loss and will get another crack at a perfect team here, only this time at home. The Colts showed a lot of heart and determination in not giving up against the Panthers despite trailing 23-6 in the fourth quarter and even took a brief 26-23 lead in overtime before quarterback Andrew Luck threw his third interception of the game.

That third pick was not Luck’s fault, though, and he nearly accomplished what he did on the road versus the Tennessee Titans in Week 3 for the team’s first victory. Despite that heartbreaking loss at Carolina, Indy has still covered three of its last four games after going 0-4 against the spread to start the season. The Colts are a lot more familiar with former quarterback Peyton Manning too and have beaten him twice in three meetings.

Smart pick

Manning came alive last week against the Packers and played his best game of the season, and he will now be extra motivated to earn his first win at Indianapolis. Luck and the Colts still seem a bit off and will not be able to come back versus a better defense in the Broncos if they fall behind by more than two touchdowns for the third straight time. Bet Manning and Denver to avenge the playoff loss with a win and cover.

Betting trends

The home team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10 games in this matchup.

The Broncos are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the Colts.

The Colts are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.