Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Betting, College Football Pick

Missouri made some nice cash the last couple of seasons, going 20-8 against the spread, but betting trends are born to reverse themselves eventually, and the offensively challenged Tigers are just 2-6 ATS this season. Missouri also rides a dismal three-game losing streak into a home date with Mississippi State Thursday night in Columbia.

Point spread: Bulldogs opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.0-23.8 Bulldogs

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

MSU won its third game in a row two weeks ago, beating Kentucky 42-16, covering as a two-touchdown home favorite. The Bulldogs then had last week off.

Mississippi State spotted the Wildcats an early 7-0 lead, but sometimes that's the best thing that can happen to a big home favorite; it's like a good slap in the face. The Bulldogs responded by outscoring Kentucky 35-6 over the last three quarters. On the night, MSU out-gained the Wildcats by 160 yards, ran the ball for 204 yards and won the turnover battle 3-1.

Just before that, the Bulldogs beat Louisiana Tech 45-20, and just before that, they beat Troy 45-17. So MSU is averaging 44 points over its last three games.

Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread

Mizzou started well enough this season, going 4-1, beating South Carolina to reach 1-1 in SEC play, but the Tigers have lost three games in a row, including a 10-3 decision at Vanderbilt two weeks ago. The Tigers then also had last week off.

Missouri again played without quarterback Maty Mauk (who's now been suspended for good) against Vandy, and did very little offensively. But the defense kept the Tigers in the game, allowing just 304 yards of Commodores offense. Mizzou had a chance to force overtime late, driving into the Vandy red zone, but ran out of downs.

Three weeks ago, the Tigers lost at Georgia 9-6, but they held UGA to 298 yards and covered as two-touchdown dogs. Just before that, they lost to Florida 21-3, allowing just 337 yards of Gators offense. If Missouri could just move the ball a little and put up 17-20 points, they could win this game outright.

Smart pick

The Tigers have scored a total of 12 points over their last three games. However, the Bulldogs, while putting up some good numbers against lesser foes recently, only scored 19, 17 and 17 points against LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. It might be tough taking a team that hasn't scored a touchdown in a month, but the smart choice here is with the defensive-minded home dog.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in 10 of Missouri's last 11 games at home.

Missouri is 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games in November.

Mississippi State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.