Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The home team is 6-0 in the last six Vikings-Bears rivalry matchups, but the betting underdog is 3-3 against the spread over that span because the teams have played several close games recently. That will probably once again be the case when Minnesota visits Chicago for a black-and-blue divisional bout Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.6-19.4 Bears

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikes are hot at 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS over their last five games after winning at Detroit last week 28-19 as one-point road underdogs. Minnesota allowed the Lions to drive for touchdowns on their first two possessions of the game, then outscored Detroit after that 25-5. The Vikings outgained the Lions 425-274, outrushed them 140-77 and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin, and that's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Over its recent run, Minnesota's only loss came on a field goal at the buzzer at undefeated Denver. The Vikings only rank 30th in the league in total offense but sixth in rushing at 128 yards per game, seventh in total defense and third in points allowed. At 4-2 overall, Minnesota also owns the No. 6 seed in the NFC at the moment.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago started this season 0-3 and looked terrible in that 26-0 loss at Seattle without quarterback Jay Cutler, but the Bears are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS since then following a 37-34 overtime defeat at Detroit two weeks ago. Chicago had last week off.

The Bears drove over half the field in less than 20 seconds to force overtime against the Lions before falling on a field goal two-and-a-half minutes away from a tie. Three weeks ago, they rallied to win at Kansas City, and just before that, they rallied to beat Oakland. And earlier this year, before Cutler missed a game-and-a-half with a hamstring injury, Chicago gave undefeated Green Bay all it could handle but ultimately came up short in a 31-23 loss.

Despite the 2-4 record, Chicago is a much better team right now than it was at the end of last season.

Smart pick

Head coach Mike Zimmer seems to have Minnesota headed in the right direction, and the same can be said of Chicago's John Fox. This should be an entertaining divisional battle and a tough one to pick, as the spread indicates.

But the Vikings are coming off one divisional road win, and asking for another so soon might be a bit much. And the Bears had last week off to rest and prepare. Chicago should extend the home team's winning streak in this series to seven with a victory Sunday.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games after winning as an underdog.

The Bears are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS wins.

The Vikings are 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 games against the Bears.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.