San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Francisco absolutely stunk earlier this season, starting 1-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, but as the lines have risen in the 49ers' favor, they're now 2-1 ATS over their last three games. San Francisco will play as a large divisional road dog when it visits the St. Louis Rams on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Rams opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 39 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.8-13.5 Rams

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco looked dead in the water a few weeks ago, following consecutive losses to the Steelers, Cardinals and Packers in which it scored a total of 28 points. But the 49ers showed some life under the national spotlight of a Sunday night game against the Giants in New Jersey, rallying to take a late lead, losing on an Eli Manning touchdown pass with 20 seconds left but hanging on for the cover as seven-point road dogs. The Niners then returned home and beat Baltimore 25-20, taking that game outright while getting three points.

Last Thursday, San Francisco suffered a 20-3 loss at home to Seattle, as the defending conference champs came up with their best performance in a month.

Thanks to their slow start to this season, the 49ers are now regularly a touchdown underdog; but they're 2-1 ATS over their last three games in part because a touchdown can be a lot when it comes to betting the NFL.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams got back to .500 on the season last week with a 24-6 victory over Cleveland, covering as six-point home chalk. St. Louis grabbed a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game on a fumble return for a score and never trailed, putting the game away with a pair of Todd Gurley touchdown runs in the second half. For the day, the Rams outrushed the Browns 158-82, as Gurley produced his third straight 100-yard effort, while the St. Louis defense recovered four Cleveland fumbles and recorded four sacks.

Just before that the Rams lost at Green Bay 24-10 but actually outplayed the Packers on their home field; they outrushed Green Bay 191-86 and held the high-powered Packers to just two offensive touchdowns. Unfortunately, quarterback Nick Foles tossed four picks.

St. Louis has outrushed each of its last four opponents by an average of 60 yards per game; so far this NFL betting season teams that have won the ground battles are 70-34 SU and 67-33 ATS.

Smart pick

Yes, a touchdown can be a lot when it comes to betting the NFL, but San Francisco has been outgained each of its last six games, four times by at least 145 yards. And the Niners are banged up, with quarterback Colin Kaepernick dealing with a sore thumb and leading rusher Carlos Hyde running on a sore foot. Meanwhile, Gurley is emerging as a great running threat for St. Louis, and that Rams defense can be nasty. The smart choice here is St. Louis.

Betting trends

The Rams are 1-8 SU in their last nine games after a win.

The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs against the Rams.

The 49ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.