Syracuse Orange vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Florida State just had a long ACC winning streak snapped in crazy fashion last week but still owns an 18-game home winning streak. However, FSU is also only 2-6 against the spread over its last eight home dates. The Seminoles shoot to rebound from their first loss of this season when they host Syracuse Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 19.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.6-18.7 Seminoles

Why the Syracuse Orange can cover the spread

Syracuse has lost its last four games in a row but covered the spread in three of those outings. Last week the Orange lost at home to Pittsburgh on a field goal at the buzzer, 23-20, but held on for the cover as nine-point home dogs.

Two weeks ago Syracuse lost at Virginia in overtime, 44-38, but covered as a seven-point road dog; and a month ago the Orange lost to a very good LSU squad, 34-24, easily covering as 24-point home dogs. So Syracuse is 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU just had a 28-game ACC winning streak snapped last week when a potential game-winning field goal was blocked and returned for a Georgia Tech touchdown with no time on the clock for a 22-16 loss.

The Seminoles led the Wreck at the half 16-10 and had a chance to take a two-score lead midway through the fourth quarter, but a bobbled touchdown pass resulted in quarterback Everett Golson's first interception of the season and basically cost FSU the game.

Two weeks ago, in their most recent home game, the Seminoles started slowly but scored 35 second-half points to beat Louisville 41-21, pulling away to cover as seven-point favorites.

Smart pick

Florida State isn't setting any records on offense this season, but its defense is holding opponents to 16 points per game. Meanwhile, outside of its season-opening victory over FCS Rhode Island, Syracuse has been outgained in every other game by an average of 125 yards per outing. So while the spread on this game might be inflated by a few points toward the home team, the Seminoles are still the smart choice.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Florida State's last six games.

Florida State is 20-0 SU in its last 20 games at home.

Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.