North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Odds, Football Pick

North Carolina owns a six-game winning streak, with four covers over that span, while Pittsburgh owns a four-game winning streak and is also 4-2 against the spread over its last six contests. Two teams playing some pretty good ball as of late hook up for a big game in the ACC's Coastal Division when the Panthers host the Tar Heels Thursday night at Heinz Field.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.3-24.2 Tar Heels

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

Since losing its season opener to South Carolina, UNC has won every time out, including a 26-13 decision over Virginia last week. That game was tied at 13-13 at the half, but the Heels won the second half 13-0.

On the day, Carolina outgained the Cavaliers 422-353, as quarterback Marquise Williams hit on 21 of 26 passes for 226 yards, and running back Elijah Hood ran for 101 yards, his fourth 100-yard effort this season. And the Heels defense picked off Virginia quarterback Matt Johns four times.

Two weeks ago, North Carolina pounded Wake Forest 50-14, outgaining the Deacons by 228 yards. So on the season, the Heels have outgained six of seven opponents by an average of 125 yards per game.

Why the Pittsburgh Panthers can cover the spread

Pitt lost at Iowa back in September 27-24 on a field goal at the buzzer but has won every game since, including a tough 23-20 decision at Syracuse last week. The Panthers trailed by a touchdown twice, rallied to take a fourth-quarter lead, then won it on its own field goal at the buzzer. On the day, Pitt outrushed the Orange 188-136 and won time of possession by a 37-23 margin.

Two weeks ago, the Panthers pulled a short upset at Georgia Tech 31-28, winning time of possession by a 34-26 margin. So the key for Pitt seems to be controlling the clock. Fortunately, the Panthers get to go against a North Carolina defense this week giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Smart pick

The Tar Heels have taken this matchup each of the last two seasons, but both those games were close. Also, while Carolina owns the edge on offense, Pitt owns the edge on defense. And in close calls like this, the smart play is with the better defense.

Betting trends

North Carolina is 4-1 straight up and ATS in its last five games against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone under in seven of Pittsburgh's last 10 games in October.

North Carolina is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.