Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Florida is a moneymaker so far this season, going 5-2 against the spread, while Georgia is acting like a pickpocket, going just 2-5 ATS. In a game that could decide who wins the SEC East, the Gators battle the Bulldogs at the big cocktail party in Jacksonville Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Gators opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.8-25.4 Bulldogs

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

UGA snapped a two-game losing streak last time out, beating Missouri two weeks ago 9-6. The 'Dawgs had last week off.

Georgia outgained the Tigers 298-164, outrushed them 120-21 and won time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin. But the Bulldogs had to settle for three field goals on excursions inside the Missouri red zone and missed another short attempt. Nonetheless, the victory kept Georgia's hopes of a division title alive, following consecutive losses to Alabama and Tennessee.

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

After starting this season 6-0, Florida suffered its first loss last time out, that 35-28 decision at LSU two weeks ago. The Gators also had last week off.

Florida led the Tigers early 7-0, fell down by two touchdowns at the half and rallied to tie the game at 28-28 in the third quarter. But the Gators gave up what turned out to be the winning score on a fake field goal early in the fourth.

Just before that, the Gators won at Missouri 21-3, holding the Tigers to just 257 total yards of offense, covering as six-point favorites. Just before that, they beat Ole Miss 38-10, allowing 328 yards, winning that game outright as six-point home dogs. Just before that, they rallied to stun Tennessee 28-27. And just before that, they beat Kentucky 14-9, giving up just 241 yards.

Florida isn't wowing anybody on offense, but its defense ranks in the top 20 in the country in several key categories.

Smart pick

Georgia lost running back Nick Chubb to a knee injury, but replacement Sony Michel has run for 232 yards over the last two games. And the 'Dawgs defense is as good as the Gators defense. So despite the ATS records so far, the smart choice in this spot is UGA.

Betting trends

Florida is 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.

Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.

Georgia is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.