Southern Cal Trojans vs. California Golden Bears Betting Odds, Football Pick

Southern Cal owns 11 consecutive victories in its Golden State rivalry with California, going 8-3 against the spread in the process. But the offensive-minded Bears will have upset in mind when they host the Trojans on Saturday afternoon in Berkeley.

Point spread: The Trojans opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.7-29.5 Trojans

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal just snapped a two-game losing streak last week, knocking off previously unbeaten Utah 42-24, covering as a six-point home favorite. The Trojans trailed the Utes after one quarter 14-7, but scored 35 of the game's next 38 points to take control. USC outgained and outrushed Utah, won time of possession by a 35-25 margin, sacked Utes quarterback Travis Wilson three times and picked him off four times.

Just before that the Trojans lost at Notre Dame 41-31 and at home to Washington 17-12, even though they outgained both the Irish and Huskies. In fact, Southern Cal has outgained every opponent except one this season.

Why the California Golden Bears can cover the spread

Cal is coming off its poorest performance of this season, a 40-24 loss at UCLA last Thursday. The Bears fell down by 20 points in the second quarter and never recovered against a fired-up Bruins outfit.

Two weeks ago, Cal lost at Utah 30-24 in a game that wasn't decided until the final drive ended in a Bears incompletion. But Cal outgained the Utes and held on for the cover as seven-point dogs.

Prior to that the Bears had won their first five games this season, putting up some big offensive numbers along the way. Quarterback Jared Goff had an off-day against Utah, throwing five picks, but on the season has already thrown 20 touchdown passes. If it can just get a little improvement on defense Cal could be dangerous.

Smart pick

Southern Cal is coming off an emotional home victory over Utah, while Cal is coming off a down outing against UCLA. But college football is like a roller coaster, and emotions fluctuate from week to week. That's why the Bears are the smart pick in this spot, plus the points.

Betting trends

Southern Cal is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games against California.

Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road in October.

California is 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.