Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers have turned the tables in the rivalry with the Oakland Raiders, winning 19 of the last 23 meetings straight up. But Oakland is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against San Diego and 7-3 ATS over the last 10 meetings. A pair of AFL originals meet for the 112th time when the Chargers host the Raiders on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.5-18.3 Chargers

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland opened this season with a bad loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and then won two in a row. While it's now lost two straight, those defeats came by a total of eight points. Three weeks ago, the Raiders fell at Chicago 22-20 on a Bears field goal with two seconds left, and two weeks ago, they lost at home to Denver 16-10, the winning margin coming on a Broncos interception return for a score.

Oakland then had last week off.

The Raiders trailed Denver just 9-7 well into the fourth quarter and were driving for the go-ahead score, but quarterback Derek Carr threw behind a receiver on a 3rd-and-5 and had it taken back for a Broncos pick-six. On the day, Oakland held the ball for over 34 minutes, but three turnovers and two missed field goals proved costly.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers just lost at Green Bay last week 27-20, but they basically outplayed the Packers and covered the spread as 10-point road dogs. San Diego fell down early 14-3, battled back to tie the game at 17-17 midway through the third quarter and ultimately came up two yards short of forcing overtime. Powered once again by the arm and will of quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers outgained Green Bay by over 150 yards and won time of possession by a lopsided 38-22 margin.

San Diego now ranks third in the league in time of possession at better than 33 minutes per game. So far this NFL betting season, teams that have won the time of possession battles are 56-30 ATS.

The Chargers have won the last three meetings with Oakland by an average score of 23-16; if they win by that margin Sunday, they'll cover.

Smart pick

San Diego will be playing its third game in the last 13 days, while Oakland had last week off. And that alone might make the difference. The smart money here resides with the Raiders, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs against the Chargers.

The Raiders are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.