Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Atlanta is a prime candidate for the Turnaround Team of the Year with its 5-1 start to this season, going 4-2 against the spread. Tennessee, on the other hand, is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS since winning its season opener. Two teams traveling along different trajectories at the moment meet when the Falcons visit the Titans Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.8-21.8 Titans

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

After winning their first five games this season along with four covers, the Falcons finally suffered their first defeat, a 31-21 decision against an inspired New Orleans last Thursday night. Atlanta actually outgained and outrushed the Saints on the night, but had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, lost two fumbles inside New Orleans territory and botched a 4th-and-1 attempt on another potential scoring drive.

Last year, while going 6-10, the Falcons averaged just 93 yards per game on the ground; this year, thanks to better health and the fresh legs of Devonta Freeman, Atlanta is averaging 130 rushing yards. The Falcons defense, which gave up 118 yards per game rushing last year, is also holding foes to a league-low 79 this season. So far this NFL betting season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 57-29 ATS.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

After opening this season with a rousing victory over Tampa Bay, the Titans have since lost four games in a row, including a 38-10 defeat against Miami last week. And there just wasn't anything good to take from that performance.

Two weeks ago, though, Tennessee lost a tough one to Buffalo, 14-13, on a Bills score with five minutes to go. The Titans outgained Buffalo that day and won time of possession by a 36-24 margin. They did something similar the week before, only to lose at Indianapolis 35-33.

Tennessee is still struggling a bit on offense, but its defense ranks third in the league overall and No. 1 against the pass. The Titans also rank fifth in time of possession, and winning on the clock is often a good way to cover spreads.

Smart pick

Atlanta has struggled through the last two seasons, but bad health played a big part. It hasn't taken much to turn things around—namely, a running game. Tennessee, meanwhile, is still a work in progress. The smart money here sides with the Falcons.

Betting trends

The Titans are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games as home underdogs.

The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites.

The Titans are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.